Democracy in the Arab-Middle East

Democracy in the Arab-Middle East: Theoretical Explanations for Stationary Development in Middle Eastern Democracies & the United States’ Future Role to Promote Democracy in the Region Allison Brown Roadmap: ● Thesis: ○ In this essay, I will analyze three different theoretical approaches to understand the lack of developed democracies and democratic principles in the Arab-Middle East to determine which is the most fitting framework. Additionally, this paper examines the future of the United States’ promotion of democracy in the Middle East under the Biden Administration in relation to the theory of modernization and US policy reflecting democratic principles. ● 3 Theoretical Explanations for the lack of democratic development in the ArabMiddle East: ○ 1.) “Cultural Exceptionalism” of Islam ○ 2.) Lack of the “Modernization Theory” in Arab States ○ 3.) U.S. Foreign Influence in Arab States (Bush and Obama Administrations) ● The Biden Administration’s Democratic Influence in the Middle East (Saudi Arabia) ● Key Takeaways ● Recommended readings on this topic/ link to my paper 1.) “Cultural Exceptionalism” of Islam ● Cultural Exceptionalism: Muslims or Arabs are inept to democratization based on their shared religion and cultures ● Huntington’s “Third Wave” of democracy in the 1980s, most Arab countries remained unchanged and experienced little to no democratization ● Logical Fallacy: Of the 47 countries in the world with an Islamic majority, only 23% of them have democratically elected governments when compared to out of the 145 countries where Islam is a minority, 76% contain democratically elected governments ● Evidence leads to the logical conclusion that Islam itself is not the barrier in the way of democracy for the Middle East and is in no way the primary factor of a lack of democracy in the Middle East 2.) Lack of the “Modernization Theory” in Arab States ● Modernization Theory: “… looks at the internal factors of a country while assuming that with assistance, "traditional" countries can be brought to development in the same manner more developed countries have been.” ● Using this theory to examine the foundation of a democratic government, it is projected that as Arab states cross thresholds in terms of economic development, changes such as increased literacy rates and education availability, in addition to the widening of the middle classes, will result in an increase in democracy. This increase will take place because authoritarian regimes will be unable to effectively rule over the newly educated and “socially mobilized complex society.” 3.) Pro-Democracy U.S. Foreign Interference in Arab States ● Bush Administration: ○ U.S. invasion of Iraq and removal of dictator Saddam Hussein in 2003 ○ Following a bout of electoral victories (for democracy) in Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and Egypt, the Bush Administration took a step back from their strong support of pro-democratic candidates to focus on security threats in the Middle East and Israeli-Palestinian peace plan negotiations. ● Obama Administration: ○ Cairo in 2009, “… to seek a new beginning between the United States and Muslims around the world, one based on mutual interest and mutual respect, and one based upon the truth that America and Islam are not exclusive and need not be in competition. Instead, they overlap, and share common principles -- principles of justice and progress; tolerance and the dignity of all human beings." ○ Libya ○ Tunisia ● Overall, when examining Middle Eastern foreign policy for both the Bush and Obama administrations, Hamid analyzes that, “America’s unwillingness to align itself with democratic forces was not, it seemed, a matter of one president over another, but a structural problem inherent in U.S. foreign policy.” ● In order for the U.S. and the newly-empowered Biden Administration to effectively promote democracy in the region, it is necessary the U.S. reframes its Middle Eastern foreign policy to not directly interfere in Arab governments but productively support democratic leaders and groups. The Biden Administration’s Democratic Influence in the Middle East ● Saudi Arabia: ○ Trump and Obama’s actions (or lack thereof) ○ On the campaign trail, Biden was a strong critic of Saudi Arabia. He said his administration would turn this repressive kingdom, a longtime U.S. ally, into a global “pariah”. In a debate, Biden stated that “[he] would make it very clear we were not going to in fact sell more weapons to them … We were going to in fact make them pay the price, and make them in fact the pariah that they are.” ○ It’s uncertain currently what could or will push President Biden to counter Saudi anti-democratic actions, putting U.S.-Middle Eastern interests at risk, since the assassination of Khashoggi has yet to garner a substantial policy reaction from the U.S. ● The question of Afghanistan Key Takeaways 1.) The argument of “cultural exceptionalism” for Muslims or Arabs being unable to build or sustain democratic principles is an unfounded logical fallacy. 2.) The lack of democratic development in the Middle East is a result of U.S. (and other international) influence and interference has caused a stagnation in the political processes of the “modernization theory”. 3.) Bush and Obama took different approaches to the promotion of democracy in the Middle East, but both fell short in truly reforming U.S. foreign policy in the region, Biden has the opportunity to fundamentally change policy in the Middle East. 4.) It’s important to understand how the Middle East has developed regarding the modernization theory and foreign interference to understand how democratic governments and movements exist today. This is a crucial understanding developing U.S. policy that is effective in the region and rightly acknowledges the autonomy of Arabs.