Simulation Heuristic Answer Key

1.Whati st hepur pos eoft heSi mul at i onHeur i s t i c ? T oi ncr easeat t i t udesofs el f effic ac yt hr oughv i s ual i z at i on. 2.Whatposs i bl eer r ori nj udgmentc anc omeaboutbyt hemi s appl i c at i onoft he El i mi nat i onbyAs pectHeur i s t i c ? El i mi nat i ngt hebestopt i onear l yi nt hedec i s i onpr oc es sbec aus ei tl ack sades i r abl e f eat ur e. 3.Thet endenc yt or eact i v el yac c eptwi t houtques t i onanopi ni onex pr es s edbya super i oraut hor i t yi scal l edt he_________ heur i st i c . powerdi ffer ent i al 4.Whi c hoft hef ol l owi ngi spr obabl yanex pr es s i onoft hei nfl uenceoft he St er eot y pi ngHeur i s t i c ? “ Thepr osec ut i ngat t or neypoi nt edatt heacc us edands ai d,‘ Foramanl i k ehi m,r ai s ed i nhi sr el i gi ouscul t ur e,i ti sahugedi s honori fawi f ei snott ot al l ys ubs er v i entt oher husband.Thati showwek nowt hatt hedef endanti sgui l t yofmur der .Is ayt hathei st he onewhobeathi swi f et odeat h.Hi smot i v ewast hathet houghts hehads omehow di shonor edhi m. ” 5.The________heur i s t i ci st het endenc ys i mpl i f y i ngdec i s i onsbyt r eat i ngr emot e pr obabi l i t i esasi ft heywer enotev enpos s i bi l i t i es .. al l ornot hi ng 6.Whatposs i bl eer r ori nj udgmentc anc omeaboutbyt hemi s appl i c at i onoft he Sat i s fici ngHeur i s t i c ? Under est i mat i onofhowmuc hi sr equi r edt os at i s f yanobj ec t i v e. 7.Whi c hoft hef ol l owi ngi spr obabl yanex pr es s i onoft hei nfl uenceoft heSat i s fi c i ng Heur i s t i c ? “ Ther ei sal way sanot herwayt ot weakt hear t wor kt hi swa yort hat .Butwehav et oget t hemar k et i ngmat er i al st ot hec onf er enc es oon.SoIs ayt hatt hedes i gni sgoodt ogo. ” 8.Onac hi l l ywi nt erdayMi c haelwaswal k i ngbyaki os kt hats ol dv ac at i on pack agest ot heBahamas .Ther ewer epi c t ur esofs unnys k i esandbeaut i f ul beaches .Hei magi nedhi ms el font hos ewar m andi nv i t i ngbeac hes .Thenex t t hi ngheknew,hehadpur c has edafi v eni ghtc r ui s et i c k ett oBahamasf orami dwi nt erget awa y .Whi c hoft hef ol l owi ngheur i s t i c st r i gger edMi c hael ’ sdec i s i ont o buyt het i ck et ? s i mul at i on 9.Whati st heopt i mi s t i cbi asheur i s t i c ? t het endenc yofpeopl et ounder es t i mat et hei rownr i s k sandov er es t i mat et hei rown c ont r oli ndanger ouss i t uat i ons 10. Whatpossi bl eer r ori nj udgmentc anc omeaboutbyt hemi s appl i c at i onoft he PowerDi ffer ent i alHeur i s t i c ? Notc hal l engi ngt hedec i s i onsoft hegr oupl eader . 11. The________heur i s t i ci st het endenc yt or emembers uc ces s f ul ev ent sasbei ng t her es ul toft hedec i s i onsonemadeandac t i onst hatonet ookandpas tf ai l ur es ashavi ngr es ul t edf r om badl uckors omeoneel s e’ smi s t ak es .. hi ndsi ghtbi as . 12. Whati st her epr es ent at i onheur i s t i c. Maki ngas napj udgmentt hatXi sl i k eYi nev er ywa y 13. Whati st hedefi ni t i onofSy s t em1Thi nki ng? r eact i v et hi nki ngt hatr el i esheav i l yons i t uat i onalc ues ,s al i entmemor i es ,andheur i s t i c s hor t cut st oar r i v equi c k l yandconfi dent l yatj udgment s 14. Whatpossi bl eer r ori nj udgmentc anc omeaboutbyt hemi s appl i c at i onoft he Los sandRi s kAv er s i onHeur i s t i c ? Af ai l ur et oactwhenac t i oni sr equi r ed. 15. Thet endenc yt or eac t i v el yac c eptwi t houtques t i onanopi ni onex pr es s edbya super i oraut hor i t yi scal l edt he_________ heur i st i c . powerdi ffer ent i al 16. Onac hi l l ywi nt erdayMi c haelwaswal k i ngbyaki os kt hats ol dv ac at i on pack agest ot heBahamas .Ther ewer epi c t ur esofs unnys k i esandbeaut i f ul beaches .Hei magi nedhi ms el font hos ewar m andi nv i t i ngbeac hes .Thenex t t hi ngheknew,hehadpur c has edafi v eni ghtc r ui s et i c k ett oBahamasf orami dwi nt erget awa y .Whi c hoft hef ol l owi ngheur i s t i c st r i gger edMi c hael ’ sdec i s i ont o buyt het i ck et ? s i mul at i on 17. Whi choft hef ol l owi ngi spr obabl yanex pr es s i onoft hei nfl uenceoft heAffec t Heur i s t i c ? “ Br andoni sahugef anoft heSanFr anc i s coGi ant s .I fhes eesany t hi ngatal lwi t ht he SFGi ant ’ sl ogooni t ,as hi r t ,ac offeec up,abanner ,y ouknowBr andoni sgoi ngt owant t obuyi t . ” 18. Whati st hedefi ni t i onofSy s t em2Thi nki ng? r eflect i v ecr i t i cal t hi nk i ngt hati sus ef ul f orj udgment si nunf ami l i ars i t uat i ons ,f or pr oces si ngabst r actc onc ept s ,andf ordel i ber at i ngwhent her ei st i mef ormor e c ompr ehens i v econs i der at i on 19. Whi chcogni t i v eheur i s t i ci nv ol v eses t i mat i ngt hel i k el i hoodofagi v enout come basedonhoweas yi ti st oi magi net hatout c ome ? s i mul at i on 20. Whi chcogni t i v eheur i s t i ci nv ol v est henat ur al t endenc yt ounder es t i mat eone’ s r i s ksandt oov er es t i mat eone’ sabi l i t yt omanagedanger ouss i t uat i ons ? opt i mi s t i cbi as 21. Whi choft hef ol l owi ngi spr obabl yanex pr es s i onoft hei nfl uenceoft hePower Di ffer ent i al Heur i s t i c ? “ WhenIwasj ustgoi ngofft oc ol l egeIus edt ot al kwi t hmyDadaboutpol i t i c s .Hes ai d t hebes tappr oac hwasal way st obecons er v at i v e.Sot hat ’ swhatIam 22. Whatpossi bl eer r ori nj udgmentc anc omeaboutbyt hemi s appl i c at i onoft he Tempor i z i ngHeur i s t i c ? Fai l ur et oc hangey ourac t i onswheny ourc ur r ents t r at egybegi nst of ai l . 23. Whatdoesheur i s t i ct hi nk i ngmean? T or el yoncogni t i v es hor t c ut swhenr eac hi ngadec i s i on. 24. Whi choft hef ol l owi ngi spr obabl yanex pr es s i onoft hei nfl uenceoft he St er eot y pi ngHeur i s t i c ? “ Thepr osec ut i ngat t or neypoi nt edatt heacc us edands ai d,‘ Foramanl i k ehi m,r ai s ed i nhi sr el i gi ouscul t ur e,i ti sahugedi s honori fawi f ei snott ot al l ys ubs er v i entt oher husband.Thati showwek nowt hatt hedef endanti sgui l t yofmur der .Is ayt hathei st he onewhobeathi swi f et odeat h.Hi smot i v ewast hathet houghts hehads omehow di shonor edhi m. ” 25. Whi choft hef ol l owi ngi spr obabl yanex pr es s i onoft hei nfl uenceoft heAnc hor i ng wi t hAdj ust ment ? “ Ther ewasat i mewhenIt houghtt hatt her eas ony oudi dn’ tdoy ourf ai rs har eoft he hous ewor kwasbecaus ey oudi dnotr eal i z et hatIwasy ourpar t ner ,noty ourmot her .But nowt haty ouocc as i onal l ydot hes hoppi ng,t hel aundr y ,andhel pwi t ht hedi nnerdi s hes Ir eal i z et haty oumus tnott hi nkI ’ my ourmot herbuty ourmai di ns t ead. ” 26. Whi choft hef ol l owi ngi spr obabl yanex pr es s i onoft hei nfl uenceoft heHi nds i ght Bi as ? “ Wedi dev er y t hi ngr i ght .Ev er y t hi ng!I twasaus ef ulpr oduct .Wel ldes i gnedandwel l bui l t .Weus edanout s t andi ngmar k et i ngappr oac h.I ti sj us tt hatnobodywant edt obuy i t .That ’ snotourf aul t .Nobodyc anpr edi ctwhatt hepubl i cwi l l l i k e.Themar k etj us twas notr eadyf orwhatwewer eoffer i ng.Not hi ngwec oul ddoaboutt hat . ” 27. Whi choft hef ol l owi ngi spr obabl yanex pr es s i onoft hei nfl uenceoft he Av ai l abi l i t yHeur i s t i c ? “ Inev ergetaflushot .WhenIwasak i dIhadat er r i bl ei nf ec t i onandt hedoc t orgav eme ahy poofpeni c i l l i nr i ghti nt hebut t .Wowdi dt hathur t ! ” 28. TheSy st em1t hi nki ngappr oac ht odec i s i onmak i ngi s . qui c kandheur i st i c. 29. Cr i t i cal t hi nki ngc ons i s t sof : Sel f r egul at edSy st em2t hi nk i ng. 30. Whi choft hef ol l owi ngs t at ement si st r ueoft heSy s t em1dec i s i onmaki ng? I ti squi ckandr eact i v e. 31. TheSy st em1t hi nki ngappr oac ht odec i s i onmak i ngi s . qui c kandheur i st i c. 32. The________heur i s t i ci nv ol v ess i mpl i fi cat i onofdec i s i onsbyt r eat i ngr emot el y pr obabl eout c omesasi ft heywer ei mpos s i bl ef oral l pr ac t i c al pur pos es . al l ornot hi ng 33. Heur i st i ct hi nk i ngi st het endenc y ,whi c hi satt i mesqui t eus ef ul ,ofr el y i ngon hi ghl yeffic i entandgener al l yr el i abl e________. c ogni t i v eshor t c ut swhenr eac hi ngadec i s i on 34. Whenwes har eourr efl ec t i v ei nt er pr et at i ons ,anal y s es ,ev al uat i ons ,and i nf er ences,wear eoffer i ngex pl anat i ons .Becauseoft hi s ,c r i t i c al t hi nk i ngc anbe des cr i bedas________. s el f r egul at edSys t em2t hi nk i ng 35. Whatpossi bl eer r ori nj udgmentc anc omeaboutbyt hemi s appl i c at i onoft he Anc hor i ngwi t hAdj us t mentHeur i s t i c ? Aconsi st ent l ybadat t i t udeaboutacowor k erwhohadabadfi r s tday . 36. Heur i st i ct hi nk i ngi st het endenc y ,whi c hi satt i mesqui t eus ef ul ,ofr el y i ngon hi ghl yeffic i entandgener al l yr el i abl e________. c ogni t i v eshor t c ut swhenr eac hi ngadec i s i on 37. Whi choft hef ol l owi ngi sac har ac t er i s t i cofSy s t em1t hi nk i ng ? r eact i v e 38. Whi choft hef ol l owi ngi spr obabl yanex pr es s i onoft hei nfl uenceoft he Repr es ent at i onHeur i s t i c ? “ Thi sy eart wooft hepeopl ei nouroffic edi ed.Onewashi tbyadr unkdr i v erl as t s ummerwhenhewasoutbi k i ng,andt heot herhadaf at al hear tat t ac kwhi l es hov el i ng s now.Weal lwor k edi nt hes ameoffic e,r epor t edt ot hes amebos s ,andbot hoft hem wer eaboutmyage.Mak esmenotwantt odoany t hi ngt hati sphy s i c al l yex er t i ng. ” 39. TheSy st em2t hi nki ngappr oac ht odec i s i onmak i ngi s del i ber at i v e,buthol i s t i c 40. Whi choft hef ol l owi ngi spr obabl yanex pr es s i onoft hei nfl uenceoft he St er eot y pi ngHeur i s t i c ? “ Ther ear eacoupl eofc i t yc opsac r os st hes t r eetonf ootpat r ol .J us tac oupl emor e bul l i esi nbl ueuni f or msl ook i ngt or ous ts omepoorhomel es sdudeorbus tac oupl eof br ownorbl ackki dswi t hat r umpedupdr ugpos s es s i onc har ge. ”