Baloney Detection Kit-2

Carl Sagan (1934-1996) • American astronomer and planetary scientist • Discovered high temperatures on Venus • Contributed to insight of seasonal changes on Mars • Sagan’s number: refers to number of observable stars Baloney Detection: Michael Shermer • American Scientist Writer • Advocate of Sagan’s Baloney Detection 10 Questions to Detect Baloney (Shermer, 2010) • How reliable is the source of the claim? • Credentials (caution: not all PhD, PsyD, MD, EdD, JDs are created equal, look at education history) • Peer-reviewed journals • Reputable sources 10 Questions to Detect Baloney (Shermer, 2010) • Does the source often make similar claims? • Patterns of claims going against already relatively well-established facts • Buzz phrases like: “Everything you think you might know is wrong!” or “Doctors have been lying to you!” 10 Questions to Detect Baloney (Shermer, 2010) • Have claims been verified by another source? • Are all of the claims coming from one lab? • Replication of facts • Replication produces reliability 10 Questions to Detect Baloney (Shermer, 2010) • How does the claim fit with what we know about how the world works? • Put it in the broader context • Would this claim, if true, make an abundance of other beliefs untrue? 10 Questions to Detect Baloney (Shermer, 2010) • Has anyone gone out of their way to disprove the claim, or has only supportive evidence been sought? • First, is it an unfalsifiable claim? • Confirmation bias 10 Questions to Detect Baloney (Shermer, 2010) • Does the preponderance of evidence point to the claimant’s conclusion or a different one? • Is there MORE evidence for the claim or MORE evidence against it? 10 Questions to Detect Baloney (Shermer, 2010) • Is the claimant employing the accepted rules of reason and tools of research, or have these been abandoned in favor of others that lead to the desired conclusion? • Evaluate their research methods • Do they begin with the “null hypothesis” • E.g., Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) scientists (Carl Sagan) vs. UFOlogists 10 Questions to Detect Baloney (Shermer, 2010) • Is the claimant providing an explanation for the observed phenomena or merely denying the existing explanation? • Is the entire crux of their argument that: You just can’t be right? • They never provide their alternative explanation, just attack the opposing view 10 Questions to Detect Baloney (Shermer, 2010) • If the claimant offers a new explanation, does it account for as many phenomena as the old explanation did? • Does the new claim do a better job to answer as many questions as the old alternative view? 10 Questions to Detect Baloney (Shermer, 2010) • Do the claimant’s personal beliefs and biases drive the conclusions or vice versa? • Do the also supposition about moral or personal biases which they claim is the basis of their facts? • Look out for affiliations • Who is also paying them? (cough cough: politicians) Attitudes of Science: • Determinism • Empiricism • Experimentation • Replication • Parsimony • Philosophical Doubt Determinism • • Determinism: Presumption that there is cause and effect relationship between phenomena The occurrence of any event is determined by functional relationships • • Things don’t occur “willy nilly” The event itself and those related and things we can study using tenants of science Attitudes of Science: • Determinism: Philosophy that phenomena are causally determined • Events are determined by a functional relation • Cause and effect • Causally NOT casually • Things do not just randomly occur Why is Determinism Important? • Human behavior is complex • Keeps us from assuming behavior just “randomly” occurs • Directly opposes: • Accidentalism: events just occur without cause or reason • Fatalism: Events are predetermined Determinism ▪ Why is determinism an important tenant of our science? ▪ Accidentalism- events occur by accident or without cause ▪ ▪ No rhyme or reason to the world Fatalism- events are predetermined ▪ Where “fate” comes from ▪ ▪ I was “meant to be here” It was “meant to happen” Attitudes of Science: • Empiricism: Philosophy that knowledge (data) is guided by objective observation and measurement • Objective excludes feelings, opinions, values, hopes, intuitions • Measure (collect data on) behaviors that we can see and objectively define Empiricism • The practice of objective observation and measurement • We measure and observe behaviors that can be seen • Objective: not influenced by a person’s opinions, feelings, values, etc.. Attitudes of Science: • Experimentation: The means by which we derive knowledge, a controlled procedure to evaluate the functional relation (cause and effect) between variables • Scientists make one change (or a combination of changes) and evaluate its effect Experimentation • • The controlled comparison to establish a cause and effect relationship between phenomena Manipulate variables in a controlled setting Attitudes of Science: • Replication: Repeating the experiment over and over to determine if the same results will occur • One result is not enough because of potential uncontrolled variables • The same results over and over increases the likelihood that we can rely on these results to be the correct conclusion Replication • Repeating an experiment to get the same results • Results of only one experiment is not enough • Science requires multiple replications to establish whether something is true or not Attitudes of Science: • Parsimony: The simplest solution should be ruled out first before going more complex when explaining a phenomena • The simplest solution that fits the facts should be selected Parsimony • The idea that simple, logical explanations must be ruled out, experimentally or conceptually, before more complex or abstract explanations are considered Attitudes of Science: • Philosophical Doubt: Attitude of continuously questioning or doubting • Remain skeptical and don’t just blindly accept a statement Pragmatism • • Assesses the truth of theories or beliefs in terms of the success of their practical application An applied approach to knowledge PRACTICE *Examples from Dr. Rios Determinism, Empiricism, Experimentation, Replication? Every time John eats pie he falls asleep. The sugar causes his blood sugar to spike and as a result he falls asleep. Determinism Determinism, Empiricism, Experimentation, Replication? Last year the school principal ate lunch with every child in a quarter that beat their accelerated reading goal. At the end of the year 80% of the children beat their reading score. For the next two years the school implemented the same intervention and obtained the same results. In the third year the school added in a 10% refund in tuition for the children who increased their accelerated reading score across all four quarters as a means to increase scores. They found that 90% of the students were able to increase their scores across all four quarters. The fact that they ran the program interventions for 2 years demonstrated: Replication Determinism, Empiricism, Experimentation, Replication? If the school were to determine the consequences of the intervention(lunch) always result in children exceeding their goals, which assumption would be demonstrated? Determinism Determinism, Empiricism, Experimentation, Replication? John weighs 250 pounds and has begun a weight loss program due to health issues. John eats only meat and veggies during the week and typically loses 7 pounds. On the weekend John cheats by eating carbs and drinking Rum and Coke. Every Monday he has gained 3 pounds and feels terribly. Based on this observation, John has decided that he will not eat carbs and drink for at least a month so he can lose weight. John’s decision to cut out carbs and Rum and Coke based on the results seen on his scale can best be described based on which philosophical assumption. Empiricism Determinism, Empiricism, Experimentation, Replication? The repetition of experiments to determine the reliability and usefulness of findings Replication Determinism, Empiricism, Experimentation, Replication, Parsimony? John has been crying for the past two days since his mother died. Rather than saying that he has depression his father has decided that John is sad due to adjusting to his mother’s passing. This explanation refers to… Parsimony Determinism, Empiricism, Experimentation, Replication? Scientists presume that the universe is a lawful and orderly place in which all phenomena occur as the result of other events Determinism Determinism, Empiricism, Experimentation, Replication, Pragmatism? Using the principles of ABA to teach language to children with autism has been proven to be effective in language acquisition. ABA has made important contributions to the success of many children and has been adopted as a main method of therapy and is covered by many insurance companies. This demonstrates: Pragmatism Determinism, Empiricism, Experimentation, Replication? Practice of objective observation with thorough description and quantification of phenomena of interest Empricism Determinism, Empiricism, Experimentation, Replication? When you go to see a client and you ask the mother what seems to be the trigger for Johnny’s physical aggression, she tells you she never knows when it is coming and it happens for no reason at all. This contradicts which assumption of behavior analysis? Determinism Determinism, Empiricism, Experimentation, Replication, Parsimony? The idea that simple, logical explanations must be ruled out, experimentally or conceptually, before more complex or abstract explanations are considered Parsimony Determinism, Empiricism, Experimentation, Replication? This assumption includes an independent variable and a dependent variable. Experimentation