What Shapes History?

War’s, human right’s movements, Women’s right movements. What causes misery for millions, freedom for some? What shapes history? Are millions of lives lost because of one individual? Are people released from suffering and anguish because of the social conditions? Or perhaps, is it fate that shapes history? Many historians would argue that historical events are the result of a certain individual- take for example Martin Luther King and the Civil rights movement. Whilst others would argue it was the social conditions, like those in South Africa that led to the Anti-Apartheid revolution. However, it is evident that the ultimate shaper of history is in fact Fate. Every historical event has been a result of fate. According to ‘Your Dictionary’ the noun fate is defined as forces outside of your control that make things happen. If a Particular event didn’t take place, then history would be completely different. If Hitler had been shot in World War one, would there have been a World War Two, the Holocaust and Nazi Germany? Everything happens sooner or later and it is neither a result of the individual or the social conditions rather a result of fate. The most discernible example where fate has shaped history is the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand. The series of events that resulted in the Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand were incidental and successive. If different decisions and choices were made throughout the day then it is highly probable that the Archduke could have avoided assassination and, history as we know it would be very different. Archduke Franz Fernand’s assassination in June 1914 was a result of fate, the implications from his assassination resulted in the outbreak of World War One, verifying that fate does in fact shape history.

Born in December 1863, Franz Ferdinand was the eldest son, born to Princess Maria Annunciata of Bourbon-Two Sicilies and Archduke Karl Ludwig of Austria, whom was the younger brother of Austro-Hungarian emperor Franz Josef. Franz Ferdinand began his military career at 12 years, rapidly working up the ranks, as well as, being a distinguished and respected member of the house of Hapsburg, rulers of the Holy Roman empire, the Austro- Hungarian empire and the Spanish empire. The suicide of the emperor’s son, crown price Rudolf in 1889 and the death of Ferdinand’s father just 7 years later from Typhoid fever, resulted in Franz Ferdinand being groomed to Inherit the Throne. In 1984, Franz Ferdinand met Countess Sophia Chotek. At this time marriage to a Hapsburg required that ‘one be a member of a reigning or, formally reigning dynasty of Europe’. Sophia Chotek failed to meet these requirements. Ferdinand Refused to marry another woman and they kept the relationship clandestine. The Family and Emperor Franz Joseph later found out about the relationship and the Emperor refused to give his permission to marry. After the continual arguing of influential European leaders, the emperor finally agreed to their marriage, under the condition that no decedents of the couple would succeed to the throne. The couple married July 1st, 1900. Archduke Franz Ferdinand allegedly had cold, short tempered, public persona, and was reportedly rumoured to be insane due to the inbreeding of the Hapsburg family. The empire was disintegrating, the Austria – Hungary polyglot empire was filled with different ethnic groups disagreeing over religion and politics uniting under a flag that wasn’t theirs. Franz Ferdinand was aware of the disintegrating empire and so he proposed changing the Austro- Hungarian rule to a triple Monarchy of the Slavonians, Germans and Magyars all of which would be equal, along with considering forming a federal government of 16 states, calling it the ‘United states of Greater Austria’. Both Ideas were unpopular and in direct conflict with the Serbian nationalist who had plans to join with Bosnia and Herzegovina to form an independent state and no longer be under the rule of Austria- Hungary. In the Summer of 1914, Archduke Ferdinand accepted the invitation and announced that he was going to continue his trip to Sarajevo, the capitol of Bosnia, despite the persistent warnings of terrorist activities by the terrorist group the “black hand”. If the Royal couple had listened to the warnings and decided to cancel the trip, their fate would have been completely different. Perhaps, the couple would have survived and avoided what was to come next from the “Black Hand.”

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“The Black Hand” were a 20th Century secret Serbian society started in 1911under the lead of colonel Dragutin Dimitrijević also known as Apis. The Britannica Encycloppædia state that its members consisted mostly of army officers and some government officials, corroborating with the information on the article published on an Australian education website written by Micheal Shackelford. The society conducted propaganda campaigns, which established networks throughout Belgade. “The Black Hand” dominated the Serbia army and, wielded influence over the government by terrorising government officials, the society eventually gained so much power it’s authority challenged the government. The main aim of the Society was to promote the liberation of the Serbs outside of Serbia from Habsburg or Ottoman rule and they executed there plans through acts of terrorism. Shackelford states that in 1914, Apis had planned to kill the Archduke without approval by the full executive committee. Those involved realised their plot would initiate war between Austria and Serbia, members of the government and Executive council were not confident in Russia’s alliance and therefore Apis was told to not proceed with the plan. Apis is alleged to have made a half- hearted attempt to intercept the young assassins at the border, but it was too late. The young Assassins idled around Sarajevo for a month, feed and housed by a network of contacts associated with ‘the black hand’. No further steps were taken to intercept the plan and no information of the intention to stop the assassination reached the men. Showing that ‘The Black Hand’ and Serbian Government lacked initiative to cancel the plan and thus questioning their commitment and desire for the scheme to be annulled. If the Assassins had been informed about the plans to cancel the assassination, it is predicted that the Royal couple would have had a worry-free trip to Sarajevo, and it is possible WW1 may have not even existed. The miscommunication between the “The black Hand” was the first part of fate to take place in the assassination of Franz Ferdinand which ultimately resulted in the outbreak of World War One.

It was the morning of June 28th, 1914, Archduke Franz Ferdinand and, his wife arrived in Sarajevo via train despite the frequent warnings to cancel the trip. It is quoted that Sophie had said to the Governor, after the success of the previous day and morning- “Things do not always turn out the way you think they will…Wherever we have been, everyone, down to the last serb, has greeted up with such great friendliness, politeness and true warmth, that we are very happy with our visit”. This Shows that Sophie was confident in their safety and wished to continue the trip. A six-car motorcade escorted the couple to city hall for an official reception. The cars were said to be armed with military personnel however, numbers were low as result of poor organisational skills of Bosnia. The Ducksters education website state that the Archduke and his wife were in the third motorcar whereas, the Biography.com website states that the archduke was in the second motorcar. Although both websites are viable, the conflicting data creates confusion as to where the Royal couple were. It is assumed the information on the biography website is more reliable than that of the Ducksters website purely because it provides more specific information. The car in which they were travelling had the top rolled back to give the crowds the best view. According to the bibliography.com website at 10.10am the motorcade passed the central police station where a Black Hand agent, Nedjelko Cabrinovicn launched a hand Grenade at Archduke Franz Ferdinand’s car. It is said that the driver accelerated when he saw the flying object. The bomb ricochet off the car and bounced to below the car underneath the wheel of the next car and exploded. The explosion injured two of the vehicles occupants along with some spectators. Bibliography.com detailed that Franz Ferdinand is reputed to have shouted in anger at local officials saying 'So, you welcome your guests with bombs?!' He also reportedly stated, 'What is the good of your speeches? I come to Sarajevo on a visit, and I get bombs thrown at me. It is outrageous”. This quote supports that perhaps the Archduke didn’t take the threats seriously, but after his experiences realise the extremity of the threats. Fate protected them from the first attempt at Assassination, but it was the events following that fate really dominated. The impending decisions and events that followed the first attempt demonstrate how detrimental a role fate plays in the shaping of history.

After the first attempt the couple continued to town hall where they listened to their normal speeches. After the formalities at Town hall, Archduke Franz Ferdinand impulsively decided to change his plans and visit the wounded men in hospital. His decision to change the route crated a lot of confusion between the drivers in regard to the route. The lack of communication saw the Archdukes driver turning off from Apple key down a side road, the General sharing the car with the Archduke quickly realised and told the driver to back up and continue along Apple key. Only, fate had other idea’s. The reverse gear failed to work, and the car happened to be pulled up beside a café where a deflated Gravillo Princip was sitting. Noticing the Royal couple, he raised his pistol and fired twice from a short distance. Sophie died immediately as Archduke Franz Ferdinand mumbled his final words “Sophie, Sophie, don’t die. Stay alive for our children” he proceeded to die shortly after. These final series of events were a direct representation of how fate can shape history. If the driver hadn’t made the wrong turn, if Principi wasn’t at the café, if the reverse gear had of worked what would have happened to the royal couple? Would they have survived and gone on to rule? These answers will never be known, however, it is evident that fate led to the assassination which furthermore lead to the political tension that saw the outbreak of World War One.

Word of the assassination spread quickly throughout Europe. Princip was imprisoned along with thousands of other serbs, he narrowly avoided the death penalty being 27 days too young. The pre-existing political tension was released as Austria- Hungary blamed the Serbian Government for the attack. The powerful Russia allied with Serbia, and Germany allied with Austria. On July 28th, Austria- Hungary declared war on Serbia, seeing the fragile peace that existed between Europe’s great powers collapse. The formed alliance’s saw the inclusion of other countries eventually causing the First World War. After four years of extreme bloodshed and loss the great war ended on November 11, 1918, after Germany surrendered to the Allies. The series of decisions and events that led to the Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, caused the outbreak of World War One. It is evident that the assassination was the final straw in the very thin political tension.