The civil war in the Kayin State between the KNU and the Burmese government has not concluded and does not look as if it will end anytime soon. However, there have been many attempts at peace in recent years. In April of 2005, the U.N. Commission on Human Rights took a stance that the Burmese government should put an end to the human rights violations taking place within the country, end widespread sexual violence, especially against those of minority identities, and put an end to the forced displacement of civilians, while providing protection and support to those groups and people helping civilians return to the country (“Burma: ‘They Came and Destroyed Our Village Again’: I. Summary” 2005). Unfortunately, in 2007, following this proceeding by the UN Human Rights Council, a US-sponsored UN Security Council resolution calling for the “restoration of democracy in Burma and an end to human rights violations was vetoed by Russia and China; their first joint veto since 1972” (Pattisson 2007). An initiative to negotiate a lasting peace settlement with the armed ethnic groups was launched in late 2011 (Rosenthal 2019). KNU’s commander of the 7th brigade, Major General Htain Maung, held talks with the Burmese military without the approval from the central leadership and later agreed to a ceasefire causing an excruciating split in the KNU (Naing Oo 2007). However, the pre-existing 1994 truce in the Kachin state broke down and the conflict resulted in several thousand deaths and more than 100,000 displaced persons as well as the ceasefire to no longer be considered valid and upheld.
In late 2013 the Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team was formed, and a Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) was drawn up, merging into a single text the proposed implementation and monitoring of ceasefires, as well as a road map for the peace process. Up to the present, 10 of the 21 ethnic armed groups identified at the time have signed,12 although some of the most numerous groups are among those that have not done so” (Rosenthal 2019). Also, the day after the cease-fire announcement with the KNU, Hillary Rodham Clinton, the U.S. secretary of state at the time, said that the US would reward “action with action” and announced that the United States would elect an ambassador to Myanmar after more than a decade without Burma having one (Fuller 2012). This was held as an “important step forward” for the country. But, the document that was signed said that the two sides would “meet again” at the end of February because there were claims that the delegation sent to negotiate and find peace with the government of Myanmar was not authorized to sign a cease-fire causing wide confusion (Fuller 2012). When viewing interviews from leaders in the KNU, they state that:
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“Trust is a very heavy word. We have a saying in Burmese: ‘You can’t even trust your own knees.’ They could betray you at any time and you can fall. We just negotiate for the benefit of the nation and its people and look for common ground. We don’t want to fight if we don’t have to. Currently, the Burmese government doesn’t want to fight either. They have their own reasons. But for now, we have a common interest ... and we can start from there” (Winn 2012).
This level of fear and distrust is especially harmful as the civil war is drawn out further and further as generations are being raised and growing up in a time where everything is unstable, so everything is questioned and something to be cautious around. Stopping the fighting is in the best interest of everyone involved to start healing these deep divides and start to build trust between the government and minority groups again. These are the same people and the same group (KNU) that claims that “The Burmese government has so much to prove. They’ve proved to us, time and again, that they can be ruthless beyond measure. Now they want to change. They deserve the benefit of the doubt. Just as we deserve the right to be (suspicious)” (Winn 2012). These tensions are still very present even today and the conflict between these groups and the intervening international actors does not seem to have an end anytime soon.
There is not a clear or accurate prediction of how many people have been killed in the civil war to this point. The range of inaccuracies is daunting. However, we do know that more than nine million people have “disappeared” within the country since the conflict began (Horton 2014). Some people, such as government officials, will blame this discrepancy on the fact that many individuals in minority groups were not counted in the first place, or on economic migrants that were often escaping persecution by the government and were in fact considered out of the country, some people were just inaccessible to count, or the idea that the 1983 census could have been flawed in itself so the numbers are skewed (Horton 2014). There are also those who look at the 130,000 civilians who perished during Cyclone Nargis and its after-effects as well as the AIDS epidemic and drug addiction problem within the country or cultural practices (like celibacy and monasticism, for example) as the reason why that number is so large when in fact the answer may be much darker. Tens of thousands of Karen people have faced genocide, torture, and gang rape at the hands of the Tatmadaw, which is a military force aligned with the Burmese government. Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been displaced throughout the course of the conflict, 200,000 of whom have fled to neighboring Thailand and are still currently confined to refugee camps (Pattisson 2007). These numbers are striking and harrowing as something going on much deeper than the surface level factors which may play a role but are also used as a distraction from the actions occurring.
Additional costs in terms of life show that the global media's failure to expose decades-long destruction may have contributed to the lack of knowledge or care toward the result. It shows us that certain stories will be glanced over to appease an international audience as “people slowly dying over decades do not fit the media's 24-hour news cycle, especially when most victims have disappeared in remote jungle mountainous terrain far from journalists and diplomats” (Horton 2014). By examining an observation of what has been happening, it is clear that the systematic and widespread destruction happening in the Kayin State has inevitably resulted in the deaths of large numbers of people (Horton 2014). These systematic killings and destruction inform the minds of those within the country which divides and hardens these groups even further against each other.
In terms of the additional costs in terms of health, there was been widespread, systematic rape and sexual violence. This sticks with the individuals and communities it affects long after the war concludes but as this civil war has been happening for more than 60 years now it stays ingrained in the generational knowledge and relations that get passed down to the next group of people who might/will be affected by it. The Rome Statute says that 'The deliberate deprivation of resources indispensable for survival, such as food, medical services, or systematic expulsion from homes and this indirect destruction and denial of medical care is happening within the country now by government forces and the Tatmadaw (Horton 2014). It is hard for a country to start the process of healing when all of these issues are still at the forefront of everyone’s consciousness and the opportunities and supplies to go about that process aren’t granted to you.
In terms of economics, most of the country lives in general poverty. This wealth disparity became especially prominent as the government wages a war of attrition with the last of Burma’s ethnic insurgency groups, this has a negative effect on the population of these groups as the Karen areas remain underdeveloped, and the under-sourced and weakened KNU is “unable to pay proper attention to the health and education of its people” (Naing Oo 2007). This is partially why so many civilians flee to camps along Thai-Burma Border or into the US with little hope to return to the Kayin state where they grew up. It is far worse for the civilians who are displaced within their own country as they live under constant fear and threat of Burmese troops. Some of the greatest problems in the country economically are the “lack of consistent access to food; insufficient income and livelihood problems; human rights abuses and poor physical security related to displacement and fighting; lack of access to education and health services; and, finally, the problem of landmines, which destroy both land and their victims’ lives” (“Burma: ‘They Came and Destroyed Our Village Again’: I. Summary” 2005). There is also a strong need for the ability to farm properly, without disturbance, which would improve income and food security, as well as better access to education and health services (“Burma: ‘They Came and Destroyed Our Village Again’: I. Summary” 2005). Many Burmese employers have refused to hire minority women which furthers the wealth disparity in the country and the military has denied permission to displaced men to take advantage of economic opportunities in areas outside Kayin State (Project Ploughshares 2018). Because of this lack of opportunity, insurgent forces have primarily relied on heroin and opium production as a source of income which feeds into the addiction problem of the country and adds an element to health costs (Project Ploughshares 2018). In 2009, the EU set new restrictions on trade with and in Burma and extended the freeze on assets belonging to government-controlled or government-owned enterprises which was about all the action they could take economically under their power. The United States announced that it would maintain trade and investment in keeping with targeted financial sanctions and later in 2013 Myanmar’s economy grew 6.5%. The EU lifted the sanctions that they put on Myanmar in 2009 but upheld an arms embargo on Myanmar though countries like China and India provide many of those resources to the Tatmadaw and government forces getting around this arms embargo (Project Ploughshares 2018). In the last decade, Russia, China, and India have increased their investment in Myanmar’s gas and oil sector which calls into question the intention of their financial support and the implications that they want to receive from the government (Project Ploughshares 2018).
In terms of political costs, the denial of aid, enforced migration, and systematic persecution of civilians inform the view of the Burmese government that many international actors and organizations have. In 2017, there was lots of optimism that inter-ethnic peace could be achieved (Project Ploughshares 2018). However, the violence in 2017 indicated that the peace process has stalled and was not looking as positive as everyone had hoped. The newly elected leader of the Myanmar government was criticized for failing to condemn the violence against many of the minority groups (Project Ploughshares 2018). Restrictions on freedom of expression and open journalism remain major concerns within the country itself as well. The government of Myanmar commonly denies journalists into the country or the ability to talk with officials to speak out as well as barring the UN Fact-Finding missions and human rights monitors access to large parts of the country (Project Ploughshares 2018).
Looking into the future, there are a few main factors that will be crucial in resolving the conflict. India and China, for example, who want Myanmar for infrastructure projects, would have to stop providing arms to the sides. The US and Thailand are also involved because of the sanctuaries and resources they are providing for refugees so each of these countries would have a part to play in the peace process and helping the refugees return if it is what they want. Violence would need to stop on all sides before any negotiated settlement would hold as it is the intense fear which drives some of these groups to keep fighting. There would need to be political dialogue with all voices present. Equal access to opportunity in the forms of development and especially education would need to be addressed as well as human rights abuses on both sides in the country. The 2008 constitution which kept military autonomy for the Tatmadaw would have to be amended for unification and centralization so it could be controlled by policy and put more pressure on them to follow these orders. There are huge financial gains at stake from many of the several dozen armed groups so economic equality would need to be approached in some form or fashion. The millions of displaced people would have to be addressed, especially those displaced within the country and those who were displaced and then came back only to flee again once because of ceasefire violations. And an International Organization would be needed as the third party, hopefully, one in the region, to ensure that all of this is upheld between the groups. The only way I can see this civil war ending is if it is through a negotiated settlement that is enforced because the war of attrition is being supplied heavily by external actors creating the likelihood of a military victory to be extremely low and the increased likelihood that it is protracted even further than it already has been.
Works Cited
- “Burma: ‘They Came and Destroyed Our Village Again’: I. Summary.” 2005. June 2005. https://www.hrw.org/reports/2005/burma0605/3.htm.
- Fuller, Thomas. 2012. “In Myanmar, Karen Rebels Deny Signing a Cease-Fire.” The New York Times, February 3, 2012, sec. Asia Pacific. https://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/04/world/asia/in-myanmar-karen-rebels-deny-signing-a-cease-fire.html.
- Horton, Guy. 2014. “Explaining Burma’s Missing 9 Million People - Evaporation, or Genocide?” The Ecologist. November 20, 2014. https://theecologist.org/2014/nov/20/explaining-burmas-missing-9-million-people-evaporation-or-genocide.
- Naing Oo, Aung. 2007. “Rethinking KNU Principles.” March 2007. https://www2.irrawaddy.com/article.php?art_id=6887.
- Pattisson, Pete. 2007. “On the Run with the Karen People Forced to Flee Burma’s Genocide.” The Independent. January 16, 2007. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/on-the-run-with-the-karen-people-forced-to-flee-burmas-genocide-6229182.html.
- Project Ploughshares. 2018. “Burma-Myanmar (1988 – First Combat Deaths) | Project Ploughshares.” 2018. https://ploughshares.ca/pl_armedconflict/burma-myanmar-1988-first-combat-deaths/.
- Rosenthal, Gert. 2019. “A BRIEF AND INDEPENDENT INQUIRY INTO THE INVOLVEMENT OF THE UNITED NATIONS IN MYANMAR FROM 2010 TO 2018,” May, 36.
- Winn, Patrick. 2012. “Myanmar: Ending the World’s Longest-Running Civil War.” Public Radio International. May 5, 2012. https://www.pri.org/stories/2012-05-05/myanmar-ending-world-s-longest-running-civil-war.
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