Tornadoes are a world-renowned and violent weather phenomenon. Affecting countries worldwide, devastating economies and leaving paths of destruction thereafter. This meteorological wonder is said to occur more than 2000 times annually across the planet, with the highest volume of tornadoes being recorded in the United States They`re a monumental force of nature due to their sheer size and power. Most tornadoes evolve whilst enclosed in a supercell thunderstorm, whilst others begin by progressing onwards from a polar front. Generally, these atmospheric phenomena can be described as a violently circulating, slim column that evolves out from a supercell thunderstorm. Furthermore, as they pick up materials, such as droplets, dust, and debris, tornadoes become much more visible as condensation begins to form inside the column. Furthermore, the structure in particularly unstable weather settings, as is a fundamental foundation to create violent tempests. Which, In order for a tornado to materialize, a number of conditions need to be for-filled, such as the correct unsettled weather conditions, vertical wind shear, and an abundance of humid air. Then this results in a vicious spinning air mass also referred to as a vortex, which structures beneath a tempest cloud. This slim cloud that has formed usually stretches out from the vortex due to the available pressure, which has decreased during the formation. From here, as the air column continues to expand and mature when it touches the ground, becomes a defined tornado. The size and power of this particular weather event fluctuate incredibly. This is because, ordinarily, they span anywhere between 20 meters to 100 meters across and acquire a path of around 1.6km. Wind velocity associated with this event also reaches up to 100mph Moreover, the revolving updraft, which creates the tilting motion in the tornado, is situated inside the mesocyclone of the supercell tempests.
Tornadoes occur all around the globe, and even small intensity types have been observed within. However, North America seems to be a hot spot for intense tornado activity. This is because it's said that this particular continent sees over 1000 tornadoes annually out of the 2000 total that is observed worldwide. The most vicious and violent tornadoes are unlikely to be observed anywhere else apart from the US, Bangladesh, and Canada Moreover, the most famous area known for its high frequency and large intensity tornadoes, is Tornado Alley, located in the central United States. Therefore, this region is especially prone to brutal reoccurrences, as well as the epicenter of tornado activity is irrefutably observed within the Western segments of the Great Plains. This region, referred to as Tornado Alley, has the greatest occurrences of tornadoes seen anywhere across the globe. This area spans out from Texas upwards and moves East to the Western and focal points of Oklahoma and Kansas, as well as Nebraska. Although, the state with the highest recorded volume of Tornadoes is Texas, annually observing an average of around 125 tornadoes, from the years 1953 - 1991. During the spring and summer seasons, humid air originating from the Gulf Of Mexico meets cooler air from Canada within the parameters of Tornado Alley and this promotes the development of strong tempests (supercells). However, this is only the case if the current circumstances also allow for the formation of tornadoes Additionally, there is a paramount characteristic that separates supercell thunderstorms from more regular types of thunderstorms. For example, a supercell thunderstorm possesses a mesocyclone which is defined as a constantly rotating updraft that extends far below
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Furthermore, measuring between 2 miles and 10 miles, known as an air vortex, is also contained inside of a convective tempest, whilst air circulates and ascents upwards about a vertical axis, moving along low-pressure lines. These special types of tornadoes (mesocyclones) are said to form as a result of dramatic variations in direction and wind speed. This is also known as wind shear, which in turn causes lower segments of the atmosphere to rotate in columns ). Additionally, whilst all after-effects of a tornado are devastating, they can be separated into two categories: primary and secondary effects. For example, primary effects refer to damage that has occurred to the physical environment (such as property), loss of life as well as damage to resources which also leads to damage to assets. Alternatively, secondary effects can mean the loss of jobs as a result of company buildings being destroyed for example, or loss of production and sales, as well as a decline in tourists which will lead to less disposable income being deposited into the local economy. All of these can result in to increased taxes and therefore a larger strain on the economy Due to the relentless and spontaneous nature of tornadoes, a watch for tornadoes only occurs when the weather settings are agreeable for the formation of tornadoes. However, tornadoes are able to form in an instant and dissipate just as quickly in a few minutes, unlike hurricanes which can evolve for several days
Although there are certain limitations on tornado prediction, as mentioned prior, this element of the unknown surrounding this meteorological phenomenon has sparked curiosity to investigate more into differing prediction models. Papers were written by Hamill Et. al (2005) and Gensini Et. al (2019) propose the idea that specific conditions are required to be present so that there is a higher probability for a tornado flare-up. These papers utilize information gathered from various events globally and are dependent upon separate variables, such as weather events like El Niño, wind shear, and the movement of air which has traveled upwards from the Gulf of Mexico. This information can assist us in anticipating the presence of a tornado. Furthermore, specifically referring to Hamill`s paper, centers around a prolonged episode of tornado reoccurrences, which took place in May 2003 and affected focal and Eastern regions of the United States. This defined flare-up of tornado activity impacted the community largely: through loss of life and damage to estates and livelihoods. This particular period observed 334 tornadoes within a week-long span.
When considering this meteorological phenomenon, an array of physics can be associated with the different mechanisms within a tornado. However, one of the most fundamental physical forces at work here is the Coriolis force. Essentially, this describes the bending effect observed in the Earth`s rotation, acting on objects which are in motion, which encompasses both atmospheric circulation patterns and the oceanographic system. This only exemplifies the large size of this force as it is able to influence two of the largest systems on our planet. Although, the Coriolis Force only possesses the ability to affect large-scale weather (such as supercell thunderstorms). The location where the system originated, either in the Northern or Southern Hemisphere, plays a large role in the development of this event. Primarily, the velocity of spinning at the Earth`s equator, is much faster than when at the poles and this is a result of the extended size of the Earth at the equator compared to that of the poles, and this also promotes the evolution of cyclones, as well as tornadoes as an effect of the Coriolis Force. The force of Coriolis can be found by using the following equation: f= 2 X the rate of rotation of the Earth X Sine of the latitude at a natural coordinate. F is described as the Coriolis parameter whereby when in the Northern hemisphere, this value is positive. However, when in the Southern hemisphere this value will be negative. Predominately, most tornadoes act cyclonically. Thus tornadoes situated on the North side of the equator should pivot in an anti-clockwise motion as air flows to low pressure down from high pressure within this region. In turn, tornadoes will be absorbed from differing directions to then be deflected. This causes a resultant anticlockwise motion. Alternatively, when in the Southern half of the globe, the opposite is true as currents here are deflected to the left, meaning a clockwise motion should be observed. Therefore, using this information, we are able to draw the conclusion that the United States should experience anti-clockwise spiraling tornadoes. Although, if they are small in size, then the Coriolis force may have little effect on the system. The only way the system will be influenced would be due to supercell thunderstorms developing within a disrupted climate, which tends the updraft to pivot in an anti-clockwise direction.
In a constantly evolving and dynamic world, climate change is arguably the largest global player when considering weather patterns, as climate change also enhances the current conditions. This is therefore causing resultant prolonged and more intense weather, such as droughts and heavier precipitation. However, weather events such as tornadoes, are more challenging to anticipate what effect climate change will have on them. This is down to the small life span and size of tornadoes also. Nonetheless, other variables which allow for the evolution of supercell thunderstorms (unsettled conditions, moist air, and wind shear) can provide scientists with enough information to predict the forthcoming effects on tornadoes. Taking this into account, the intensity of tornadoes appears to be unchanged, however, the multitude on certain days has surged compared with recent years. These differing factors affecting tornadoes, as mentioned before, may all be influenced separately by the change in climate and can be observed in the Great Plains. That tornadoes appear to be forming in greater groups than before and traveling more Eastwards, whilst the average number of tornadoes of around 1200, overall remains consistent. Furthermore, a predicted upsurge of moisture in the air will allow for more likelihood of greater updrafts, thus meaning that the probability of extreme tempests will also increase by the end of this century
The predicted effects of climate change, are outlined in the IPCC report. It is said that there is a high probability when considering convective severe storms, that the mean rate of rain associated will surge in a warming climate. As well as, a medium level of certainty that there will be an escalation in the number of severe convective storms in the United States, thus resulting in a prolonged severe storm period. Moreover, there has been an observed fall in the number of days in the United States which have experienced tornadoes, however, there is a higher multitude of tornadoes on the days on which they do occur. Unfortunately, due to the nature of tornadoes, there is a level of low confidence associated with predicting changes in tornado trends, due to inadequacies in examining this particular weather event, as they are very short-lived. There are contrasting models which are used to predict the effects and changes of convective severe storms. One of which requires a model which is allowing of convection, encompassing less than 5km spacing. This model type estimates more extensive areas, like whole land masses to predict more powerful convective tempests. In addition to that model, another vital method is the utilization of looking at the circumstances of the environment which govern the qualities required for the development of severe storms. However, in saying this, it is still challenging to predict serious convective storms in this manner. Finally, numerical weather prediction is primarily used in day-to-day forecasting up to 10 days into the future so thus there is a much larger grasp on the current conditions and how they are likely to change as it`s not far into the future. Whereas, climate models are fundamentally an expansion of usual weather prediction, but predict the conditions years into the future.
Ultimately, the Great Plains region in the United States is an epicenter for a high volume of tornado activity. It is in the perfect location for supercells to form and thus is able to provide favorable conditions for them to evolve. This area sees the highest number and intensity of tornadoes in the world and this is not likely to change, as exemplified by the climate model predictions. As although the overall number of tornadoes has remained constant, the frequency of tornadoes a day has increased as well as the power they possess. This is a result of a warmer climate which has affected each ingredient that creates a tornado, to be more susceptible in allowing them to take shape.
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