How Black Friday Sales On Thanksgiving Affect The Economy

Black Friday shopping is a Thanksgiving tradition for most Americans.In 2017, more than two-thirds of American adults shopped over Thanksgiving weekend, either in stores or online.But do you know how the black Friday tradition started?

In the early days, Thanksgiving became the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season in the decades after President Abraham Lincoln made it an official holiday in 1863.Then, in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, various department stores began sponsoring Thanksgiving parades, such as macy's Thanksgiving Day parade.Known as the Santa parade because it ended with the arrival of Santa Claus, the parades were used by department stores to launch Christmas activities and increase interest in holiday shopping.It eventually became an unwritten rule that retailers would not start their holiday sales until after Thanksgiving.On November 28,1924 macy's Thanksgiving Day parade for the first time, Thanksgiving has closely connected with the holiday shopping season.In the end of November, the then President Franklin d. Roosevelt to holiday for a week in advance, extended the holiday shopping season, but it also caused great public uproar.

There are many theories about the origin of black Friday, but one of them is when a dark crowd goes to the mall and waits in long lines on the Friday after Thanksgiving.One popular theory is that because it is the first day after Thanksgiving (the fourth Thursday in November), followed by the big traditional Christmas in the United States, people usually start Christmas shopping, and many stores are filled with customers and make big profits.Traditionally, different colors of ink have been used for accounting, red for deficit and black for profit.So this Friday is called black Friday to indicate that the day is expected to be profitable.This is because store sales usually begin at midnight, the end of Thanksgiving Day, and the day after Thanksgiving, bargain hunters have to rush to the mall to line up for bargains.

Sixteen percent of Americans finish shopping two to three weeks before Christmas.Americans like to finish their holiday shopping early.Consumer data from 2015 shows that nearly one in four Americans (24%) do their holiday shopping around black Friday and cyber Monday.In fact, 8 percent of Americans buy some kind of gift on black Friday and cyber Monday.For some, the shopping season never ends.Sixteen percent of Americans do holiday shopping throughout the year.America's holiday shopping season seems to be getting longer every year.This year, major retailers like Amazon, Costco, Walmart and Target have already announced black Friday deals in early November.

In the U.S., Black Friday has been regarded as the beginning of the Christmas shopping season since 1932. It is referred to as Black Friday because many retailers usually make enough sales on that day to put them in the black for the year, meaning that they will begin to turn a profit. In 2015, 74.2 million people shopped on Black Friday alone, which is lower than the number in past years ranging anywhere from 85 million in 2011 to 92 million in 2013. Although the number of consumers have decreased in recent years, 74.2 million shoppers still means large profits for these corporations.

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Black Friday is known for kicking off holiday spending, however, the three-day Black Friday weekend is where businesses truly make their money. In 2014, 133.7 million people shopped over the weekend. Each one of these 133 million spent, on average, $380.95, which totals out to be around $51 billion dollars of consumer money that was poured into the economy. Investors examine Black Friday sales in order to examine the health of the retail industry. Since many economists believe that spending drives economic growth and activity, they will imply that if Black Friday spending is low the health of the economy is too.

Us consumers spent $7.4bn online on Black Friday this year, making it the second-largest online shopping day in US history, according to data collected by AdobeAnalytics.This year's black Friday, with $7.4 billion in sales, is not only the biggest black Friday day ever, but the second-highest online revenue ever, fall behind last year's 'Cyber Monday,' with $7.9 billion.The average order value for consumers was $168, up nearly 6 percent from a year earlier and also a new black Friday record.By 9 a.m. Et, Small Business Saturday online spending had reached $470 million, up 18% from last year.Adobe said sales for the day were expected to exceed $3 billion.U.S. online sales are up about 20% from last year, according to Adobe.Adobe expects Cyber Monday spending to hit a record $9.4 billion this year, up 18.9% from a year earlier.On Friday, Adobe said online shopping on Thanksgiving Day had reached $4.2 billion, a record 14.5 percent increase from last year.Popular purchases included Disneyland frozen 2 toys, video games such as FIFA 20, and gadgets such as apple Airpods and Samsung TVS.While some traditional bricks-and-mortar stores, such as Target and Walmart, have made the transition to online shopping,and Kohl's, Gap and macy's have struggled.Target shares are up about 95% this year, while wal-mart is up nearly 30%.But Kohl’s, Gap and macy's are down more than 25% this year.

This year, black Friday in the United States surpassed previous years with a record $57.9 billion in transactions.Black Friday is more than just a record deal this year. It is a bellwether for America's economic outlook.

First, black Friday comes at a critical time for U.S. economic growth.The U.S. economy has been growing for 124 months, making it the longest economic cycle in U.S. history.This round of economic growth began with the Obama administration's economic stimulus after the financial crisis and has been driven by trump's tax reform.From the perspective of the economic cycle, the long period of economic growth has actually entered a sensitive point.The market is worried that the economic situation will turn around, and pessimistic expectations further increase the downward pressure on the economy.Black Friday comes at a critical time, when markets will be watching for more consumer data that will help gauge consumer confidence and economic expectations.

Second, black Friday comes at a delicate time for the dynamics of economic growth in the United States.Uncertainty over Mr Trump's trade policies has dented us investor confidence and reduced us business investment.The current economic growth, is consumption growth to compensate for the decline in investment.Both consumer discretionary and consumer discretionary stocks in the s&p 500 are up about 22% this year.Target, Tiffany, best buy, home depot and Walmart are all up at least 25%.U.S. consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic output and is now the main driver of the U.S. economy.With trade frictions likely to escalate again and business investment and industrial chains reeling, the U.S. economy's ability to sustain growth in the fourth quarter depends on the start of the shopping season on black Friday.Third, black Friday is at a time of rising economic and trade frictions between China and the United States.On May 17, Mr Trump threatened to impose a 10 per cent tariff on $300bn of Chinese imports.Since then, the office of the U.S. trade representative has further refined the list, with tariffs on some goods, including cellphones, laptops, video games, monitors, toys, shoes and clothing, going into effect on Sept. 1 and delayed until Dec. 15.Since the trade war between China and the United States, the United States has been escalating tariffs on Chinese imports, starting with high-tech products that are far away from the consumer end, then intermediate products, and finally spreading to consumer goods.Postponed to December 15 after this part of the concern?Mainly consumer staples, this is mainly to keep tariffs from affecting the black Friday to Christmas Eve shopping season, reducing the impact on consumer prices and business profits.Even as China and the us prepare to sign the first phase of the trade deal, Mr Trump has merely lifted a threat of tariff escalation on October 15, but has remained non yes-so on the tariffs to be imposed on December 15.An escalation of tariffs would immediately affect the price of electronic goods such as iphones, so black Friday may be the last time for American shoppers to sell good deals.