National Energy Supply and Demand Outlook

Having sufficient energy can support for the country in the stage of developing country like Myanmar. This is focuses on estimation of electricity demand & supply rate for future which can be supported to reduce the energy gap in long-term. Based on the methodologies and framework constructed to define what action and plan should be taken to fulfill the electricity demand for our country Myanmar. In order to make the research problems more specific and to find a solution based on the results of the research, the following statements are presented as research objectives:

1. To study the existing industries outputs capacity (supply);
2. To study the corresponding amount of energy consumption (demand);
3. To find the gap between supply and demand;
4. Finding gap information would be taken into account for ‘National Energy Master Plan’.

Introduction

Energy is vital for the country’s economic development. Myanmar is one of world’s fastest growing economies, after market liberalization during recent years, which has led to major international investment. It is widely forecasted that GDP growth rate is 8.73% per year from 1994 until 2017 (TRADINGECONOMICS, Central Bank of Myanmar 2018). The country has many of natural resources, competitive labor costs, an advantage location and opportunities in developing infrastructures as one of the Southeast Asia’s investment destinations. In order to be ready for the kind of foreign investment opportunity, provision of supply energy is one of the challenges as per focuses of energy demand. Myanmar energy supply and demand overview would be carried out based on below mentioned material and methods in topic IV.

Overview of Myanmar’s Energy Supply and Demand

Currently, from total households of nearly 11 million, and estimated 6 million households remain without electricity (Myanmar Living conditions Survey 2017, World Bank Data). In addition to electrify the powerless areas, robust economic and demographic growth pushes energy demand higher. Nationwide energy demand in Myanmar is rising fast for the availability and accessibility of modern energy resources to improve the living standards and support industrial activities.

Statistically, the consumption rate of electricity in Myanmar is increasing annually, and this is to be estimated and analyzed for demand forecast.

Overview of Yangon’s Energy Supply and Demand

Yangon is the capital city of Myanmar which is the economic zone and most developed area of our country with strongest electricity demand. Population of Myanmar is 54, 078,481 (worldometers,18 December 2018, Myanmar Population). In Yangon alone contains 5,157,461 people (UNdata, 2018). From 2016 data, shows that electricity consumption throughout Myanmar is limited to 2500 megawatts from both hydropower and thermal power production. The commercial capital of Yangon accounts for more than half of the country’s total consumption (The Irrawaddy, 2016).

Material and Methods

By using case study analysis method that is simplifies complex concepts for real life situations from different sides, different views to analyze and explore the data to find out the solutions. Moreover, we can get many useful information, solutions on the same subject, same problem. In this subject, we need to analyze the below data which can help to solve the challenge ‘how to find way to reduce the energy consumption gap for long term provision plan?’. In this research, I would like to use MARKEL and SPSS analysis tool for analyzing data. SPSS analysis for complex statistical data analyzing, processing and MARKEL tool which is used for methodology of energy environmental policy analysis, basic standard model that finds lease-cost solutions for directly comparable national results, set of national energy technology databases that are current and consistent, track record of transferring its soft technology to new users (etSap, MARKAL).

Finding the Gap Between Supply and Demand

Understanding how electricity demand evolves and grows over time helps plan investment for future. Forecasting demand is difficult, especially in developing country like Myanmar. Factors such as income and credit availability influence when households acquire energy-using assets. This is to find and research the gap between electricity supply, demand and targeting to long term plan to be addressed as per research questionnaires.

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Household Energy Consumption Questionnaire Design

By using research statistics and case study methods, surveys were conducted in across Yangon and main townships were selected to ensure appropriate coverage across each state and region. The reports set out statistics from the surveys for urban and rural households covering to those areas such as:

• Households floor space, size, and income ranges;
• Household income, expenditure levels and expenditure on energy;
• Household appliance and usage of different fuel sources;
• Energy consumption per household;
• Fuel and appliance usage for water heating;
• Types of cooking appliances used in households;
• Energy sources used for lighting;
• Quantity of electricity and non-electricity energy consumed;
• Whether households are electrified and for how long;
• Appliances used in households;
• Energy fuel bill per month;
• Statistics on household vehicle usage (Asian Development Bank, Myanmar Energy Consumption Survey Report, 2017).

Industry Energy Consumption Survey Questionnaire Design

Currently, Yangon region has 29 industrial zones and one special economic zone (Myanmar Times, 2018). Questionnaires are designed to be flexible to account for the variations in the business operations of the industrial energy consumer and designed with below key feature of the survey:

• Plant location: important to determine or analyze the underlying fuel/energy source availability to a particular region;
• Process description: to better understanding of what energy source is used for and how to group business into general categories;
• Production and plant capacity: to gauge the size of operation and the total potential energy usage if the plant is at full capacity;
• Fuel consumption: this is to know type of fuel consumption which each business would rely on only several fuel types;
• Generation capability: to determine whether the facility is grid-connected, and/or has backup (Myanmar Energy Consumption Report, 2017).

Results

By using survey questionnaires methods to get quantitative and qualitative research data by sampling 1000 households, industrial zones covering all large and small to medium enterprise (SME) survey for some 100 premises including restaurants, hotels and business associations (Myanmar Energy Consumption Report, 2017). The information from respondents to be used for estimation the specific annual consumption rate. The information was come out from these respondents shows that firewood is mainly used for cooking (73%) and candles and torches for lighting (65%), followed by electricity for cooking (13%) and battery for lighting (17%) while the demand for modern energy sources is rapidly increasingly from per respondent’s data, data gathering, analyzing were performed and Myanmar energy supply and demand’s gap were addressed as below.

Myanmar is expected to consume about 4531 megawatts of electricity in 2020-2021. Currently, the total annual electricity production is 3189 megawatts with 1342 megawatts still needed to product more on demand (Win Khaing, Minister of Energy, ‘The global new light of Myanmar’, 2018).

Yangon region alone is expected to require 3,000 MW of electricity, in another words, Yangon will require the equivalent amount of current power consumption by the whole country from 2021 to 2022 (Su Hlaing, Assistant Manager, Yangon Electricity Supply Corporation, Myanmar Times, June 2018).

That’s the amount of electricity currently being generate across Myanmar, of which Yangon now consumes just over half at 1548 MW.

Conclusion

As per research findings, energy demand forecast, Myanmar is increasing more than 10% annually, and it is estimated that Myanmar is expected to consume more than 7000-8000 megawatts (MW) of electricity in 2025, where the current annual total electricity production is 3,200 MW, with around 4,000 MW still needed. After conducting work shop with all related parties, National Energy Policy as following is reported for government’s road map:

• To invite the local and foreign investments for the extraction and utilization of natural resources in order to fulfill the nation’s energy needs by minimizing the environmental impacts and practicing the HSE and corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities measures;
• To adopt prioritized plans on energy efficiency and conservation;
• To define the energy pricing by observing the ASEAN and international energy pricing policy for the affordable and reliable energy prices for end users and customers;
• Not only for increasing the power generation of hydropower, renewable energy sources, thermal power plants but also the feasible alternative energy sources;
• To establish the regional cooperation for energy by expanding the power grid and pipeline network to neighboring countries;
• To implement full-fledged power generation as short term and long-term plans in order to get stability of power generation;
• To establish energy database system and to draw and execute the energy supply plans.

References

1. Myanmar Energy Consumption Survey Report 2017, Retrieved from https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/.../myanmar-energy-consumption-surveys.pdf
2. Myanmar Living Conditions Survey, 2017. Retrieved From https://themimu.info/.../Report_Myanmar_Living_Conditions_Survey_2017_Jun2018.p...
3. Current Status of Myanmar’s Energy, Workshop On Energy Statistics for ASEAN Countries (2017). Retrieved From https://unstats.un.org/unsd/energy/meetings/2017a/7.3.pdf
4. Tim, D., Energy of Myanmar, International Growth Center (2016). Retrieved from https://www.theigc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Dobermann-2016-1.pdf
5. Myanmar GDP Annual Growth Rate, TRADINGECONOMICS, https://tradingeconomics.com/myanmar/gdp-growth-annual?embed&embed/survey
6. Myanmar Population 2018, Retrieved from http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/myanmar-population/
7. Yangon Population 2018, Retrieved from http://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/yangon-population/
8. Myanmar Energy Still need to produce more on demand, Retrieved from http://www.globalnewlightofmyanmar.com/myanmars-growing-electricity-needs/
9. Yangon Electricity Consumption, News, The Irrawaddy 2016, Retrieved from https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/burmas-electricity-demand-predicted-to- nearly-double-by-2020.html
10. Ben, F., (2018) What is SPSS. Retrieved from https://www.surveygizmo.com/resources/blog/what-is-spss/
11. MARKAL Analysis Tool. Retrieved from https://iea-etsap.org/index.php/etsaptool/model-generators/markal