COVID-19 is the new risk on the stability, security and prosperity on the next decades. On these days and as the result of breaking out COVID-19, there are challenges and threaten factors on the world situation. There are several obstacles at world level, such as the world's economic challenges, the lack of strategic leaders, the capacity of existing world structures to deal effectively with strategic issues that lead to further difficulties, or the reinforcement of the idea of globalization and the growth of organizations that are unsettling.
In order to explain and describe the challenges on the next decades to global security, stability and prosperity (SSP), we initially focus on the definition of these terms. The concept of security “means the freedom to live, act and make choices in accordance with a nation’s values”. Security is a multiple definition that have extended in scope and challenge. Since the end of the Cold War, security was relatively connected to the Westphalian term as, the initial emphasize of statecraft being the keeping and maintaining of its sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity against external aggression. The stability explains as a situation in which something is not likely to move or change. Also, stability “does not mean stasis or standing still but rather ensuring the provision of a firm platform for action, like a ship at sea”. The third term, Prosperity, is explained as the situation of being successful and having a lot of money. “At the national level, it relates more to a state’s continued development and sustained economic growth, as well as, importantly, how this increased wealth is distributed to provide a safe and secure environment for its people.”
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To answer the question, the politics of identity consider as the most dangerous challenges for international security, stability and prosperity on the upcoming years. Furthermore, there is still another challenge relating to dominance of new powers China and Russia. That is the challenge of emerging powers with authoritarian governments, such China and Russia, without internal controls, and illiberal democracies.
It is hugely approved and noted that security, stability, and prosperity in the states are relatively connecting to the security and stability in all over the world. Throughout the changing of situation on the world, the events and situations on one nation can be affected and changed the status on all over the world, for example the accident of 11 September, it wasn`t affecting on the security, stability of USA only but affecting on the whole security on the world and sending a threat message to all nations. . In today’s global society, a station cannot consider its security individually a mission of the fields directly surrounding it.
There are many reasons for leading to instability and insecurity on the world, such as cold war, which has been fully changing the security on the world. On the other hand, and after collapsing the Soviet Union, the concept of security, stability, and prosperity have been changed and transferred to new era, which connecting to proliferation of weapons and mass destruction, international terrorism, and regional conflicts and new pressures.
Also, the fall of the Soviet Union was cut off point for superiority of a unique dominance as the result of sovereignty and independency were challenged after attacking of 11 September 2001. The following years were negatively affected on the economic, political, and military dominance of USA on the world, due to make the decisions to participation in wars in Afghanistan and Iraq wars; while, Russia and China began to appear emerging as great powers on the world.
On the previous years, the political and military identities were profoundly changed. Globalization is not representing the end of the identity and wiped out. It is granting the new concept relating to free movement of capital, goods, equipment, services and individuals and motivating massive population movements on the world. This has created and established the increased ratio of resentment in societies that show risks and threats on all members of community. The resentment of a population is performed by populist movements to establish the tensions and challenges on the world.
Regarding to the challenges of security, stability, and prosperity on the future, some analysts think that it a historical phenomenon; but others consider that this new nationalism to be of existing preparation, including numerous features which are new. It contributes on the destabilizing and collapsing of the nation, and it is a nationalism that shortage of a modernizing identity and manner.
By more focusing on the details, it is noticed that the identity was one of the basic reasons for new challenges and tensions; 60% of the non- state challenges happened and occurred after 2001 as the result of ethnic or religious differences and identities. Within the 1990s, and after the falling of the Soviet Union, political identities were the initial factor for conflicts. So, all indicators refer that there is a coordination and an agreement about that identity was one of the greatest challenges for the new tensions on the world with differing the culture and ethnicity for each nation. So, the political identities consider as the most dangerous challenges for international security, stability and prosperity on the upcoming years.
Another challenge is relating to the two powers appeared. In short, both Russia and China are trying to change situation and pioneering of political powers from USA and they exploit the geopolitical gap left by USA, as the result of numerous wars participated by USA. These nations are new emergent powers creating and formulating a future real threat and risk on security, stability, and prosperity on all over the world.
One of the two powers is Russia, which offers on the pride to a fossil-based economy and fruitful market expenses, was able to recreate its Armed Forces and repeat its traditional greetings. It began competing the international situation and case by reacquiring military consolation with the USA, keeping on exploiting the economy of the European Union, damaging the NATO alliance and preparing an alternate anti-liberal and authoritarian form among the political parties all over the world. So, Russia struggled to spread the Russian aspect of impact that had been appropriately affected after the 1989 collapse. It is a fight to monitor the access to the Artic. Undoubtedly, Russia and China are biggest threat since Cold War.
The second power is relating to China, which was explained and described by many researchers and analysts as the “peaceful rising power,” in the feeling that this titanic economy would not transfer and change into military power. Also, the existing realities appear to confirm the contrary. China has re-secured its military system and procedures towards more aggressive one by appropriately enhancing and improving its defense budget by far more than any other country and now creates and prepares very powerful and high-tech military machinery. That transformation and changing in the military situation does not offer defensive posture abilities improved and enhanced.
On the same context, China had traditionally all the factors and elements to transform a superpower: territory, population and systems. Additionally, it is only after establishing the capitalist-focus economy, which the “Middle Kingdom” has created as a world economic power, on the strategy of creating on the leading from the USA.
China has created and explained the strategic matters of many nations around the world, but traditionally in Africa and South America to insure an in-flow of natural matters and procedures. This is a strategic change to insure its enhancement and reinforcement of economic improvement and development. USA has tried to present in that economic strategy and system.
The Chinese economy is definitely pioneering above the American economy. The challenges and fights don`t reach at the stable solutions and not order to effect on the security, stability and prosperity worked on. A head-on challenge in another field and factor such as the economic one would appropriately bring threaten reasons. Additionally, China is not projected to coincide with the American military for the next years, the international stability and prosperity will be definitely influenced and impacted and may be negatively affecting on the situation of population on the community.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is a non-traditional provincial organization that represents a variety of powers and power games. The official goals of this agency are to fight foreign terrorism, ethnic separatism, and racial extremism. In 2001, the presidents of China, Russia and Central Asia agreed to create this organization. It initially concentrated on internal security issues of the region, but has been an administrative instrument to implement soft balance measures against the US.
Finally, there are three features for controlling on identity and emerging two power nations on the world, which are considering the two greatest challenges to global stability, security and prosperity in the next decade, the first feature is unavailability of strategic competition between two or more essential. The second feature is the increasing and enhancing the communication and arrangement of regional powers and consultations in preparing and creating the stage for the enhancement of international interest or confrontation. Most enhancement and reinforcements towards international order in the security matter are more or less connected or communicated to regions. For example, Europe looks like to take more difficult track from East Asia, the Middle East or Africa, while there are signs that Latin America might follow the European form to a definite ratio essential. The third feature considers to the operation of globalization. Globalization is a multidimensional operation that contains and includes on at different operations and that looks like to surpass the traditional method of knowing international affairs.
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