Coronavirus impact on tourism: Assessing peace sensitivity

This article tries to discuss and explore the interface between tourism and peace. It attempts to address how tourism a peace sensitive industry by taking COVID-19 as an agent changes in the realm of it. This article aims to assess how tourism is a peace sensitive industry, by taking the impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on tourism in its social, economic, cultural, and environmental circumstances. The incidence of pandemics affirms how tourism as peace sensitive industry which generally approves the hypothesis that tourism is the beneficiary of peace than it generates. It the fact that tourism can contribute to peace via creating contact with the various cultures which in turn facilitates mutual understanding. It has also negative impacts if we do not manage it properly. If tourism is managed properly, it enhances economic, social, cultural, and environmental sustainability which manifests the presence of positive peace. At the moment, the nexus between tourism and peace is disrupted by the coronavirus pandemic. The aim of the article is to assess how tourism is a peace sensitive industry by investigating the various impacts of COVID-19 on the industry. To do this, the researcher used different reports of national and international organizations. The different commentaries that were done by professionals, communities, and stakeholders were consulted and assessed it with the different secondary kinds of literature which give an illustration about peace sensitive tourism. The article is guided by the following research questions. What socio-cultural, economic, and environmental impacts occurred in tourism due to the prevalence of pandemic of COVID-19?

In 2019 only 1.5 billion tourists were crossing the border and it has an intense and all-embracing impact on societies, the environment, and the economy. As of the end of the same year, tourism contributes 7% of total world exports and 30 percent of total exports in services. In the year 2018, it was ranked as the third export earning category following fuels and chemicals. In general, tourism accounts for 10% of the World GDP and offers 1out of 10 jobs internationally (ITF, 2020). According to the WTTC estimates, the tourism sector was directly linked to 16.7 million jobs in 2019 in the 12 countries. In spite of some significant differences exist in estimation at the country level; this is comparable to the 15.3 million figures based on official estimates discussed earlier. WTTC also estimates an additional 18.3 million jobs to be indirectly linked to the tourism sector, thus bringing the total number of tourism-linked jobs to 35 million for the 12 countries. Thus, the figure clearly indicates that tourism is one of the dominant employment sectors for the world population (ILO, 2020).

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Different authors ascertain that tourism can create employment and, consequently, contributes to the income of local communities. In job creation and income generation, tourism brings economic benefits to host communities; in so doing improving local communities’ quality of life as the economic benefits of tourist give the financial means to access modern facilities in the form of goods and services. In addition, tourism brings many prospects to improve facilities, such as outdoor recreation facilities, parks, and roads. There is a general acknowledgment that the tourism industry has increased the availability of recreation and entertainment facilities in various forms (Jaafar et al., 2015). The tourism industry is one of the world’s major companies, together with the energy industry. Nevertheless, contrasting to the energy industry, tourism is less of inevitability and henceforward is exceedingly penetrating to noteworthy tremors such as the COVID-19 pandemic (Chang, McAleer, and Ramos, 2020).

The tourism industry inclines to be very sensitive to negative environmental factors like natural disasters, epidemics, serious social conflicts, war, economic crises, and terrorism acts. Thus, these types of occasions impact tourism mobility and traveler’s motivation to travel which will have long-term consequences on the tourism industry. The eruption of coronavirus has also established anxiety on travelers (Hung, et al., 2007; Ulak, 2020).

It is worth mentioning that international tourism has been experienced in a variety of predicaments in the past. Between the years 2000 to 2015, main upsetting occasions take account of the September 11 terrorist attacks (2001), the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak (2003), the global economic crisis unfolding in 2008/2009, and the 2015 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) outbreak had affected tourism with verities of degree but neither of them had long-lasting decay in the global development of tourism, and some of them are not even notable with only SARS (-0.4%) and the global economic crisis (-4.0%) leading to declines in global arrivals. This would indicate that tourism as an organization has been resilient to external shocks. Yet, there is a considerable indication that the impact and recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic will be unique (Stefan and et al.2020; World Bank 2020a, 2020b).

Starting from last January, the world has been facing a new and unknown situation. Experiencing with policies of opening countries to encourage the arrival of tourists and travelers, as the result of the incidence of COVID-19, in just a few weeks this condition has been altered in a shocking way into disaster actions proposing blockades and unexpected closures of borders. In a very short time, the global economy is in a situation of ups and downs not known until now, whose impact generates the collapse of the main economic structures, affecting especially the tourist and commercial industry (Santod D. 2020). The impact of the virus on the tourism industry is estimated five to seven years of worth of growth have been lost (ITF, 2020).

International, regional and local travel restrictions immediately affected national economies, including tourism systems, i.e. international travel, domestic tourism, day visits, and sections as diverse as air transport, cruises, public transport, accommodation, cafes and restaurants, conventions, festivals, meetings, or sports events. With international air travel rapidly slows as a result of the crisis, and many countries imposing travel bans, closing borders, or introducing quarantine periods, international and domestic tourism declined quickly over a period of weeks more than any other sectors (Stefan Gössling and et al., 2020 ITF, 2020; Carbone,2020). The air passenger transport industry has been hit hard by COVID-19 as foreign visitors began canceling scheduled trips and countries started closing their borders as part of national emergency responses (ITAT,2020; ITF, 2020). A study by IATA estimates that passenger revenues for the airline industry will be nearly US$ 88 billion lower this year compared to 2019 and that most airlines are left with less than three months of liquidity to sustain them through this period of turmoil. In this situation, airlines have taken unprecedented measures, sending their staff on paid or unpaid leave, implementing salary cuts, or laying off workers. The shutting down of airlines has a direct impact on the tourism industry (ITAT, 2020).

The reduction in travelers has directly affected the tourism industry, which has a direct impact on loss of income and increased unemployment. The impact of the pandemic on economies that are already slowing down has made tourism particularly vulnerable, becoming the hardest hit sector to date (Carbone, 2020). According to UNWTO estimates, the tourism sector, which is 80% made up of small and medium-sized enterprises, international tourist arrivals could fall by between 1% and 3% by 2020 globally, reducing growth from an estimated 3% to 4% in early January. This would translate into an estimated $30-50 billion in lost international tourism revenue for international visitor spending in the destinations. The international movement of tourists in the world may fall this year between 20% and 30% compared to 2019, taking into account that never before have travel restrictions been introduced as those currently in place to contain the spread of the COVID-19 or coronavirus pandemic, an unprecedented decline that will mean a collapse in revenue of up to 410,000 million euros (Santos D.2020; Ulak, 2020 Carbone, 2020).

The ultimate principles underlying the justification and restriction strategies applied to control the pandemic such as distancing of individuals and quarantining of communities; contribute openly against the assets of the global economy, created around connectivity and inter-dependence. Ironically, the loss of connectivity required to inhibit the spread of the COVID-19 has prompted an economic contamination, with the crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic surging across socio-economic sectors, and instigating main interruptions to trade, tourism, and energy and finance sectors (Lenzen and et al. 2020; Carbone,2020).

Countries jumbled to coming back travelers home, which in the case of important outbound markets involved hundreds of thousands of citizens in all parts of the world. For instance, on 23 March, the British Foreign Secretary insisted British tourists return home, recommending against all but crucial international travel, and emphasizing that international travel is becoming very difficult with the closure of borders, airlines suspending flights, airports closing, exit restrictions and further bans being implemented daily (FCO (The Foreign & Commonwealth Office, 2020; Stefan Gössling and et al., 2020). Cruise ships quickly became the worst incidence for anyone held in the global tourism system. Starting with the Diamond Princess on 1 February 2020, at least 25 cruise ships had confirmed COVID-19 infections by 26 March 2020 and at the end of March, ten ships remained at sea unable to find a port that would allow them to dock. Idealized safe environments (Cordesmeyer & Papathanassis, 2011) at sea turned into traps, with thousands of passengers seized in-cabin quarantine and facing the challenge of returning home. Within countries, the virus affected virtually all parts of the hospitality value (Mallapaty, 2020; Stefan Gössling and et al., 2020). These evidences show that travel has become more dangerous as the result of COVID-19 which is the main attribute and practice of tourism.

The World Travel and Tourism Council has notified the COVID-19 pandemic could cut 50 million jobs worldwide in the travel and tourism industry, particularly Asia is anticipated to be the worst affected. If the outbreak will be over, it could take about ten months for the industry to recover (World Economic Forum, 2020). This impact would depend on how long the epidemic lasts and could still be aggravated by recent preventive measures, such as those taken by the U.S. administration on travel to Europe (World Travels and Tourism Council, 2020). According to the chief executive of WTTC, the coronavirus is a substantial menace to the tourism industry that could decrease the travel sector by up to 25% in 2020 (BBC, 2020b).

Coronavirus has also revealed the danger of over-reliance on tourism, demonstrating in brutal fashion what happens when the industry supporting an entire community, at the expense of any other more sustainable activity, collapses. In May, the UN World Tourism Organization projected that incomes from international tourism might be depressed 80% this year compared to last year and that 120m jobs could be lost. Since tourism relies on the same human mobility that spreads disease and will be subject to the most stringent and lasting restrictions, it is likely to suffer more than almost any other economic activity (De Bellaigue, 2020).

It also anticipated that 60-80% degeneration in international arrivals for 2020. Given that tourism are the most important source of growth, employment, and income for many countries, principally in developing countries. According to the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), in 2019, 1.5 billion people crossed international borders with tourism accounted for 29% of the world's services exports. It is also estimated that 1 in 10 jobs, with migrant workers, young people, and women making up a significant proportion of this workforce (UNESCO, 2020). The economic impacts of the COVID-19 crisis are increasingly hitting low- and middle-income countries and the poor. International travel restrictions and the full or partial closure of businesses and industries in Asia, Europe, and North America have led to a collapse in global travel and are expected to reduce the flows of remittances. Tourism and remittances are important sources of employment and income for the poor, correspondingly (IFPRI, 2020). In a similar vein, the role of the tourism and travel sector to the total output of the Arab States is expected to decrease by about $ 126 billion in 2020, placing about 4 million jobs at risk. It is anticipated that the incomes from international tourists coming to the Arab States region will descent by 50 to 60 billion dollars. Such degeneration in tourism activity is expected to have a substantial impact on many countries in the region (UNESCO, 2020).

According to European Union statistics, some 13 million European engagements in the tourism sector are in jeopardy, whilst UNWTO reports a 19% decrease in tourism in the first quarter of 2020. 62 % of Europeans make the minimum one leisure trip every year and most of them stay in Europe. 190 billion euros is spent on tourism during a normal summer season amounting to 10% of EU GDP. The compulsory closure of World Heritage sites and attractions has cost millions in revenue. For instance, the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, a World Heritage site in the United Kingdom is encounter losses of £15m, potentially impacting the important research and conservation work it has carried out on plant diversity and economic botany since 1759. In the same way, the Vasa Museum in Stockholm, Sweden, which houses a 17th-century wooden ship, is almost absolutely backed by admission fees. 85% of the museum’s 1.5 million yearly visitors are foreign tourists and not only brings an estimated $300m to the city every year but also raises awareness about underwater cultural heritage, including shipwrecks and submerged cities or landscapes. This illustrated evidence affirmed that due to the pandemic of coronavirus, numerous heritages (cultural and natural) have been endangered for manmade as well as natural disasters.

In a similar vein, tourism started to decline rapidly, driven by a significant decrease in tourism arrivals from China, which in many countries account for a large share of tourism revenues. As the number of coronavirus infections increased outside China, international travel restrictions started to widen within the region. With the further spread of the virus, also tourists from outside the region canceled their previously planned trips, given the increased level of uncertainty in both safety and travel restrictions. In the course of March 2020, with the outbreak of COVID-19 in Europe, the United States, and all other parts of the world, international tourism essentially came to a halt. With lockdown measures that governments have implemented in many countries and stay-at-home recommendations, also domestic tourism took a hit (ILO, 2020).

There has been a dramatic reduction in business activity in the tourism sector, with essentially all jobs in that sector affected, and a large number of workers becoming jobless for an extended period of time. At the initial phases, the projected impacts of COVID-19 in the Asia Pacific region were substantial. At the moment, with the global close of tourism due to the further spread of COVID-19 and the actions that governments have taken in retort, there is convinced that the impact will be much higher and more lasting. Millions of workers with previously permanent incomes are henceforth at danger of descending into dearth, which is why existing circumstance needs pressing consideration (ILO, 2020). Other international organizations such as the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) have stated that the tourism sector is losing one million jobs worldwide every day. As an example, data from countries such as Italy are shown: the Tour Operators' Union Assoturismo of Italy, reported that the epidemic could bring tourism in that country back to the turnover it had in the mid-1960s by 2020, that is, a reduction of more than 260 million visits (-60%) compared to 2019. Likewise, the impact of the current crisis on the tourism industry is being received in a different way, be it destinations, companies, and institutions (Santos D., 2020).

In addition to the threat to public health, the COVID-19 pandemic has brought economic and social disruption that threatens the long-term livelihoods and well-being of millions. Like the other parts of the world, the tourism sector in Asia and Pacific has more or less ground to a termination, which brings severe costs to many of the region’s economies and to the incomes and jobs of the sector’s workers. This indicates that about 15.3 million jobs in the tourism industry in 14 countries of the Asia-Pacific region are crushed by the COVID-19 catastrophe; through shortened hours, extended paid or unpaid leaves on partial wages, or complete job loss (WTTC, 2020).

Many migrant workers engaged in the tourism sector have fled, or attempted to flee, to home provinces or countries to wait out periods of lockdown with the added stress of unemployment and income insecurity. Their capacity to sustain themselves in the largely rural provinces to which they returned is likely to be low and many will need to draw upon whatever government social assistance programs that they can find. Effective return and reintegration policies of migrant workers are important to meet migrants’ needs and develop their potential (ILO, 2020).

Some affected tourist workers are protected by labor regulations that keep them, at least temporarily, on the payrolls of their employers. Yet the capacity of employers to continue to pay wages is extremely stressed as incoming revenues run out, thus deepening their dependency on government assistance to withstand foreclosure. It is a tenuous situation that cannot continue indefinitely. Despite the availability of government assistance to tourism enterprises, already bankruptcy numbers are rising. The design of COVID-19 policy responses that focus on the crucial role of decent work is vital to alleviate the antagonistic impacts on tourism enterprises and workers and to achieve a sustained and equitable recovery of the sector (ILO, 2020c).