Impact of “Overpopulation’’ on the Economy of Pakistan

Background

In the beginning of twenty 1st century, overall the world population was spreading around 6 billion and increasing with the increasing ratio in last few years. In every new year about seventy of million of people were enhanced in the world, population; while in the overall population there is an 8o percent share of underdeveloped nations and a major part of developing countries. In developing and developed countries, the population situation is entirely dissimilar and in the developed countries population is quite well managed, as there is a better utilization of the working class. China is one of the best examples, that is utilizing her working force greatly. While, developing economies, are trying to achieve the essential wants and not giving any attention on the population growing side, so in developing countries, there is a huge problem of overpopulation economic development. Population and economy always reflect a close relationship with each other because rapid population growth makes an effect on the economy of the country. There are normally two general views about the impact of population growth on economic growth. 1st is population is a real problem. According to this view population growth is one of the important public, economic and governmental actual problems. The developing world is bearing this problem. 2nd is the population are needed not a problem. High population growth means high supply of labor. A high labor supply gives a boost to economic development. That enhances to the labor supply can be used for increasing the production of goods and services.

In the case of Pakistan, the rapid population growing rate is a major problem that is affecting its economic, social and political sectors. In the previous century many countries tried to manage the population growth rate and its impacts; But not succeed because of less awareness and a weak political system. According to an economic survey of (2013-2014), the population growth rate in Pakistan was 1.95 percent, the highest in Asia. So due to this Pakistan is lagging; when compared to the other developing world. The population in Pakistan went a terrifying position. Now the population has become the major hurdle in its economic and welfare path. It is projected that the population of Pakistan will be reached around 210.16 million by 2020. According to a world report; Pakistan will remain at six positions in 2050, with about 363 million of population. Pakistani population has been increasing more than 4 times since 1947. From the time of freedom, Pakistan added only one million in a year and now on every three months, about one million population has been adding in Pakistan on every 3 months. In this critical situation none of the development plan, can tolerate such a huge population growth rate. A rapidly growing population is not only puts a country’s economic assets under pressure but also increases its dependency ratio of young people and thus limit the production of economic development in the economy. (Ahmed, 2016)

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Introduction

Since 1947 when the sate of Pakistan became a sovereign state, the population of Pakistan, has enhanced significantly, as compared to the other countries in the region. The growth rate of the population of Pakistan; is about two-point one percent higher than other states. Population growth is the difference between the birth rate and death rate at a particular time and a year. When the birth rate increases and the death rate decreases population growth increases. As according to Thomas Malthus population growth increases exponentially and food production increases arithmetically so if there is no control of population growth then there will be a huge problem of food and hunger. In 1984 the life expectancy rate of a Pakistani citizen was at fifty-six point nine years of age. In 2002, the life expectancy rate had jumped up to sixty-three years of age. The improvement was a result of better medical facilities and the availability of educated health professionals in the state of Pakistan. On average the population of Pakistan were spreading at a rate of three percent per year from 1951 to the middle of the 1980s. From the mid-1980s to the year 2000, the growth of the population slowed down to around 2.6 percent per year, and from 2000 to 2012, to about two percent per year.

According to world population prospects 2019, The population is predicted, to be near 210 million by 2020 and get to 245 million by 2030. Components are as one birth in every 5 seconds and One death in every 21 seconds. One net migrant in every 2 minutes and Net gain of one person within every 7 seconds. The population of Pakistan according to the Last united nation survey estimate (July 1, 2019) is about 216,565,318, Births per day are 16,433, Deaths per day are 4,069, net migrations per day is (-622), and net change per day is 11,742.

Economic development is the process; in which production increased of a country at a particular time period. Growth increases because of the latest technology and innovation. It is a quite crucial concern for the economic growth, of any country. In Pakistan, the economic growth rate; is quite low as compared to developed countries that are due to mainly not properly use of resources and old methods of production; as well as lack of technology and political instability.

The population is an essential variable; that influences the growth rate of the country. The relationship; between economic development and the growth rate of the population is positive and negative. But in the case of Pakistan, population and economic growth occur a negative relationship. The situation of population in Pakistan reached a terrifying position; that is increasing day by day rapidly. The different survey reports predicted; that population of Pakistan more increase and doubled in the coming years. According to the economic survey report; the Population of Pakistan is estimated at 210.14 million, in the year 2020.

Hypothesis

1. Relation between population and economy.
2. Impact of ‘population growth’; on ‘economic development in Pakistan.
3. What is the relationship; between population, and economy? in the case of Pakistan.

Significance

This study will help policymakers and the government to understand the relationship between population and economic growth, especially in the case of Pakistan. This paper aim to convince policymaker and student of economics to understand the importance of a controlled population for the economic growth and development of the country in a proper way. As in the case of Pakistan, the relationship between population growth and economic development is negative so it is easy for readers and policymakers to control the population in a positive way without any delay.

Methodology

The method that we used for our research proposal is a systematic literature review we examined different research paper and collect secondary data from them. Authentic websites and published papers are used to analyze the literature reviews. Empirical data has been collected from authentic sources and the nature of the research is both qualitative and quantitative in nature. Data analysis to compare the relationship between; population and economic growth in Pakistan. The result is according to our assumptions and prediction. Research is unbiased and free of any type of fund from any type of organization.

Literature review

(Tsangyao Chang, Hsiao-Ping Chu, Frederick W. Deale, Rangan Gupta, 2014) Discussed the relationship between, population and economic development in twenty-one countries. His study examined; that the population rate has a negative impact on the economy of the state. The study applied the “Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Test” to analyze the result. He used; the time series data from 1871, to 2013. Technological development is a cause of population growth; which leads to an increase of labor productivity, per capita income and progress in living standards. The study suggests, that this research provided a solution that helps between population and economic development for demographers and economists and policymakers to manage the rapid growth of the population rate. (Tsangyao Chang, Hsiao-Ping Chu, Frederick W. Deale, Rangan Gupta, 2014)

(Ahmed, 2016) examined relationship between population and economic situation in Mexico. Study applied the time series data, from 1960 to 2014 and the final result was performed in the short run. It resulted; that economic development has a negative effect on rapid population growth. In the long run, however, it was founded that population has a positive effect; on per capita GDP and that per capita GDP positively affects the population. (Ahmed, 2016).

(Sher Ali, Amjad Ali and Amjad Amin, 2013) analyzed the relationship between the impacts of population on economic development in Pakistan. The study argues; the rapid growth of the population has a negative impact on economic development. The study examined; a high number labor force is not founding any job. The study used the 34-year annual data, took real gross domestic product as a dependent, variable and the independent variables were population, unemployment rate, human resource development, and trade openness. At the end of the study, he analyzed that population growth is not a real concern, which leads to the problem of unemployment, and development policy is not effective. Studies suggested; the government of Pakistan should consider the problem of unemployment and the high population growth rate. (Sher Ali, Amjad Ali and Amjad Amin, 2013)

(Atanda, Akinwande A. and Aminu, Salaudeen B. and Alimi,, 2012) Examined the situation of the rapid growth of population versus economic development, of developed as well as developing countries. They found the population has a positive impact on economic development in developed nations and it has a negative impact in the developing world. Researchers analyzed, data of different developing countries as a sample, which starts from 1980 and ends at 2010. The study took economic development as the dependent variable and birth rate, crude death rate, mortality rate, fertility rate and life expectancy as the independent variables. They concluded that the impact of a high population on the economy is positive in developed countries and the impact of a high population on the economy of developing countries is negative. Paper also suggested; that developing nations, should increase the aggregate level of investment and provide education and health facilities to citizens to achieve, the required levels of growth rate. (Atanda, Akinwande A. and Aminu, Salaudeen B. and Alimi,, 2012)

Limitation

Limited experience resources, facilities, and time.

Bibliography

1. Afzal, M. (2009). Population Growth and Economic Development in Pakistan. The Open demographic journal.
2. Ahmed, R. N. (2016). Impact of Population on Economic Growth: A Case Study of Pakistan. 1 to 15. Retrieved from https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/5d15/9694c3199d07a4876bf53702baa69b04f7f1.pdf
3. Atanda, Akinwande A. and Aminu, Salaudeen B. and Alimi,. (2012, march). The role of the population on economic growth and development: evidence from developing countries. Munich Personal RePEc Archive, 1-20.
4. Sher Ali, Amjad Ali and Amjad Amin. (2013). The Impact of Population Growth on Economic Development in Pakistan. Middle-East Journal of Scientific Research, 483-491. Retrieved from https://www.idosi.org/mejsr/mejsr18(4)13/11.pdf
5. Tsingtao Chang, Hsiao-Ping Chu, Frederick W. Deale, Rangan Gupta. (2014). The Relationship between Population Growth and Economic Growth Over 1870-2013:. University of Pretoria (p. 1 to 31). Taiwan: Department of Economics Working Paper Series.