The Challenge of Climate Change in Vietnam

Vo Nguyen Giap, an influential Vietnamese military and political leader said that: “The soldier comes to another front now, the environmental front … without environmental recovery, Vietnam cannot have economic recovery” (cited in Beresford & Fraser, 1992). Despite being ranked as the 32nd largest economy in the world in 2017 (World Bank, 2017), Vietnam is ranked 5th in vulnerability to climate change according to the Global Climate Risk Index (2017) and is the 27th largest emitter of greenhouse gas (WRI, 2014). Twenty-five years have passed since Vietnam engaged in the first international treaty on climate change, but meaningful change to prevent environmental degradation has been limited. This essay will explain the urgency of climate change as a policy issue for Vietnam, and will discuss motivations for the government of Vietnam to make further reforms in this area.

The Gravity of the Climate Change Challenge

In comparison with other emerging countries, Vietnam has developed a relatively comprehensive regulatory climate change policy framework at both macro- and meso-level. Specifically, at the macro-level, in Vietnam, climate change policies are approved by the Prime Minister, overseen by National Committee on Climate Change, led by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (‘MONRE’) and implemented by all ministries, sectors and localities with technical and financial supports from international organizations, such as the World Bank, United Nation, and Asian Development Bank. Regarding policy tools at meso-level, Vietnam has engaged early in international frameworks, such as the United Framework of Climate Change Convention (‘UNFCCC’) in 1992 and Kyoto Protocol in 1997 (Schrimbeck, 2015); and operationalized its international obligations through a series of domestic plans in all national, sub-national and sector levels, including ‘National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change’ in 2008, ‘National Climate Change Strategy’ in 2011 and the ‘Vietnam Green Growth Strategy’ in 2012 (CPEIR, 2015). Combating climate change also received high attention on the national agenda for socio-economic development for the period 2016 to 2020. However, the enforcement of these climate policies has been variable. Zimmer et al. in 2015 described the government of Vietnam’s reactions as ‘symbolic policy’ to appease the public, rather than practicable and effective policies with specific tools and parameters. Resolution No. 24-NQ-TW (2013) of the Vietnam Communist Party also admitted the inefficacy of the government’s response and attributed it to the inconsistency between policies launched by different authoritative agencies, the inefficient approach in policy making processes, and an inept monitoring system. Despite the fact that it is more than two decades since Vietnam signed UNFCC, in-depth research has shown that Vietnam is increasingly severely affected by a globally changing climate. In comparison with the 1970s, the average temperature in Vietnam increased by 0.5 degree, the sea-level rose at speed of 2.8mm per year, and extreme weather events are occurring more frequently and unpredictably (MONRE, 2009). According to the Asian Development Bank (‘ADB’) these manifestations of climate change in Vietnam have adverse impacts on numerous areas of socio-economic development, such as economic loss, agricultural land salinization, human impacts (unemployment, poverty, and migration), water resources shortages and contamination, high energy demand and increase of GHG emissions, commuter system’s damage, inundated industrial infrastructure, and forest and biodiversity loss (ADB, 2013). For example, nearly one third of cultivating land in Mekong Delta, which is the biggest granary accounting for 52% of total rice production in Vietnam, has been salinized due to rising sea-level (cited by Vu, Yamada, & Ishidaira, 2018). As agriculture contributes 15.3% of GDP and 40.3% of the national labor workforce (World Bank and GFDRR 2011; GFDRR 2015), the increasing seawater intrusion will put Vietnam at danger of food shortage and decrease in GDP (ADB, 2013). In a 2011 report, AUSAID estimated that calamities cost Vietnam USD$6-15 million per year. In 2017, which was a record year of natural disasters in Vietnam, total economic losses were estimated at more than USD$2.65 billion, accounting for nearly 1.2% of total GDP (Kishore et al., 2018).

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Drivers of Climate Change Policy Reform

There are several key motivations for the government of Vietnam to implement stronger policies to deal with global climate change, of which the most compelling are high exposure to adverse impacts of climate change, induce foreign investment for economic growth, and rising public awareness. First, it is undeniable that Vietnam has increasingly high vulnerability to climate change due to specific geography with long coastline located more than 70% of population (GFDRR 2015), which is the strongest driver for reform in environmental policies in Vietnam. This was affirmed by Zimmer et al.’s research in 2015, which conducted interviews with senior officials at ministerial-level and officials from other international, bilateral and non-governmental organizations in Vietnam involved in designing and executing environmental policies. Many research studies conducted on the impacts of climate change on Vietnam (ADB, 2013; Global Climate Risk Index, 2018; IFAD, 2014; IMHEN 2008; IPCC 2007, 2014; WB 2007) have projected that sea-level rise will be the biggest challenge for Vietnam in the future. With every 1 meter of sea-level rise, Vietnam will lose 5% of land, affecting 11% population and 7% agricultural activities (World Bank and GFDRR 2011; GFDRR 2015); 70% of agricultural land will be salinized and eroded; 4.3% of current transportation infrastructure (roads, seaports, railway) will be damaged; and enterprises in 20 provinces, which contribute 56% of national production, will be disrupted (ADB, 2013). Consequently, it is predicted that by 2050 Vietnam’s national income will decrease by 3.5% due to climate change (Arndt, Tarp, & Thurlow, 2015). Environmental and economic growth impacts of this scale are a critical driver for reform that cannot be ignored. Secondly, attracting foreign aid and investment to support economic growth is another crucial motivation for Vietnam to reform environmental policy. Official development assistance (ODA) plays an important role in developing Vietnam’s economy. For the period from 2011 to 2015, ODA accounted for about 4% of total GDP and nearly half of government expenditure on social investment (World Bank, 2017). Due to the fact that Vietnam became a lower-middle income country in 2010, many international donors have been phasing out support for Vietnam to allocate funds to poorer countries (Pincus, 2017). In comparison with 2010, the total amount of ODA received by Vietnam in 2017 reduced by 11% (World Bank, 2017). However, many sponsoring organizations declare sustainable development support as one of their top priorities among other aid purposes (World Bank, 2011; IFAD, ADB). Therefore, enhancing climate change policies, especially mitigation actions, may be crowd-in strategy to induce more international financial aid for economic development in Vietnam (Zimmer et al., 2015). In this case, the multiple-stream approach of Kingdon (1994) can also be applied to explain how to couple to problem stream of reducing ODA with policy stream of reforming climate change policy. Furthermore, signing free trade agreements (‘FTA’) with partners, such as Trade Pacific Partnership and Vietnam – EU, also require Vietnam to improve and implement its domestic legislation on environmental protection. These trade agreements are critical to ensuring market access for exports of Vietnam and thus add further economic incentives for reform. Finally, rising public awareness of climate issues puts pressure on the government to improve enforcement of environment policies. The Gallup World Poll in 2007-2008, which surveyed citizens from 128 countries, showed that Vietnam has the highest level of public awareness of climate change and its threats among South East Asian countries (73% and 53% respectively). The level of media reporting on environmental issues has increased, especially after the fish-death pollution in Ha Tinh province in 2016 (Schirmbeck, 2017). The mass fish death is considered “the most serious environmental disaster Vietnam has ever faced”, according to Mr. Nguyen Xuan Phuc, the Prime Minister of Vietnam and triggered a series of protests inside and outside Vietnam. As a single-party company with an authoritarian regime, like China, protests are rare in Vietnam. The protest for the Ha Tinh natural disaster shows that environmental concern is an exceptional situation which can challenge the stability of the political system in Vietnam. Thus, the government must seriously consider prioritizing environmental policies on their agenda if they want to enhance their credibility among citizens.

Conclusion

To sum up, climate change is a global ‘wicked’ problem. Vietnam is at particular risk due to the impact of rising sea levels on agriculture, with potentially devastating impacts on the economy, businesses, farms, and individual citizens. Current policy responses have been ineffective in addressing this pressing challenge. Critical drivers for reform include the need to avert an environmental disaster, pressure from international founders and trade partners, and political pressure from concerned citizens which threats to the stability of the government’s system.